Jones Knows Notebook: Market faith points to 9/2 Burnley win at West Ham

• Market strength behind Burnley worth following

• Back Clarets to beat West Ham on Sunday @ 5.79/2

• Elanga ready to strike v Brighton or Luton

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Burnley are bad, just not that bad

Winning is a habit. And so is losing.

Great teams have winning built into their DNA. The belief never wavers.

But for bad teams, belief is the impossible dream.

Burnley posses that tag of being bad. They have the same points total as Sheffield United, who have just become the first side in English football history to lose three consecutive home games by five or more goals.

But, contrary to popular and lazy clichés, the league table can lie.

Burnley are bad but they're not Sheffield United bad. It's unfair to label them with same tag.

Burnley beat the Blades 5-0 for starters in their meeting earlier this season and even on the eye-test it's clear to see Burnley are the superior outfit.

Even against Bournemouth on Sunday, Vincent Kompany's men won the shot count, had more possession and racked up more opposition-box touches. They were the better team yet their inability to be ruthless in both boxes held them back - again.

The betting markets, where the shrewdest opinions are found, mirrors this theory of Burnley being rated higher than just mere relegation fodder.

Wolves went off 1.9310/11 on the Betfair Exchange to beat Burnley at home. Just a few weeks later they started at 1.4840/85 to beat Sheffield United at Molineux. Almost a 17 per cent probability swing in probability - that's huge and provides a perfect example of how much the Clarets are underperforming compared to results.

A quick look at Burnley's opposition starting prices also shows faith still remains in Kompany's men winning games this season, although relegation is a formality now.

On the Exchange, Bournemouth went off 2.021/1, Crystal Palace 2.001/1, Fulham 2.546/4, Luton 3.505/2 and Everton 2.226/5. These aren't prices you'd expect to see against a team that have lost 20 games already this season.

Either the market is getting it woefully wrong or Burnley are going to deliver on this faith and win a game soon. I trust the market.

I'll be in the brace position when placing the bet, but the early 5.49/2 on them beating flaky West Ham on Sunday does make appeal.

Elanga is Forest's dangerman - a goal is coming

Anthony Elanga is firmly on my goalscorer radar.

The Nottingham Forest attacker is Nuno Espirito Santo's main man in the final third, where his lightning pace and dynamite dribbling are perfectly suited for Nuno's counter-attacking style.

Since the former Spurs boss took over in December, Elanga leads the way in all key attacking metrics for Forest: shots (18), shots on target (9), big chances (9) and expected goals (4.1). Yet his goal output of just two goals is lagging behind those impressive underlying numbers.

This underperformance is keeping his goalscorer prices rather chunky and I'm especially interested in following him over the next two weeks when looking at who Forest play before the international break. It's Brighton and Luton - two teams that are defensively suspect and offer so much space for direct attackers that revel in transitions.

Brighton have conceded 23 shots from fast breaks this season - only Newcastle have conceded more - whilst Luton, third in that shots conceded from fast breaks (22) list, are shipping goals at an alarming rate since switching their style. The 3-2 defeat to Villa means it's now 22 goals conceded in their last five games.

Elanga has the tools to unlock both defences. Keep his goalscorer prices in your thoughts. Anything bigger than 3/14.00 should be gobbled up.

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