Premier League Outright Predictions: How to back Haaland Top Goalscorer in 6/1 #OddsOnThat Bet Builder

• Keep it simple in the top goalscorer market

• Everton to push up the division?

• Fulham could go backwards

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Top goalscorer? Keep it simple

Is there any need whatsoever to over complicate this?

What is the point of looking for some shrewd top goalscorer pick that might score 15 goals and scoop up some place money when you can just take the real deal at a shade of odds via the Exchange?

Erling Haaland was 8/111.73 last term to top the Premier League's goal scoring charts and is the same price this season on the Sportsbook. You can get around 1.8910/11 on the Exchange though at the time of writing.

This will be the Norwegian's third season in England. He has already finished as the top goalscorer in each of the previous two seasons scoring 63 domestic goals in total.

That is a goals per 90 average of 0.95 and includes 14 penalties (he takes pens which is a bonus), 16 braces and six hattricks. The latter puts him joint sixth on the all-time most Premier League hattrick leaderboard. Again, he has only completed two seasons in England.

Another thing to consider is Manchester City face Chelsea on matchday one. The two clubs squared off in a friendly where Haaland scored a hattrick. At Leicester, Enzo Maresca had some teething issues with his high line and this is something Haaland has already capitalised on.

Assuming he can net a few on opening weekend, this price will get chipped away.

Toffees moving towards the top

Assuming the big seven (the big six plus Newcastle) occupy the top eight spots with Aston Villa also up there, it leaves two spots to fill and in my mind there are potentially seven sides competing for these spots.

At the prices available, it is Everton that appeal the most.

West Ham at 1.875/6
Crystal Palace at 2.166/5
Brighton at 2.186/5
Bournemouth at 3.65
Brentford at 4.904/1
Wolves at 5.004/1
Everton 4.507/2

Sean Dyche is doing some job at Everton last season. Why he is 50/151.00 for the England job I am not quite sure.

He inherited Frank Lampard's squad on January 30th 2023 when they were two points from safety and beat Arsenal in his first game and finished two points above the dotted line.

Despite a turbulent campaign off the pitch last season, culminating in an eight point deduction, the Toffees finished 14 points above the relegation zone and bar that deduction, they would have only been a point behind Crystal Palace in 10th.

At 4.507/2, Everton finished in the top 10 appeals.

Cottagers to crumble?

All three of the Premier League new-boys made an instant return to the second tier last term. Disastrous PR for the Championship. Luton, fancied by the bookies to be the worst of the bunch, actually finished with the most points.

Each relegation has caveats but on the whole last season was an outlier because the survival rate across the last 18 teams promoted has been at 50%, not 0%.

Some teams don't just survive either, they thrive.

Aston Villa is the most extreme example. Promoted in the play-offs, surviving by the skin of their teeth due to a faulty goal line technology system and then going on to qualify for the Champions League.

Fulham have also trod this path, as have Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton and even Nottingham Forest to a lesser extent.

Some clubs have been fortunate, some have great managers, a long term strategy, an unbelievable scouting network or a bit of everything.

Ipswich certainly have the credentials to make a fist of the Premier League.

They arrive in the top flight with a great manager and a clear transfer policy.

The greatest bit of business they did over the summer was fending off interest for Kieran Mckenna. The acquisitions of Ben Johnson, Conor Townsend, Arijanet Muric, Liam Delap, Jacob Greaves and Morai Hutchinson also supplement an already talented squad.

McKenna is also a lot shrewder than he gets credit for.

The Tractor Boys played completely differently at Portman Road to how they did on the road in the Championship. On their own patch, the games averaged 3.95 goals with 73.9% seeing over 2.5 clicks. On their travels, it was 2.50 goals per game with unders clicking in 52%.

I don't think we will see the gung-ho approach nearly as much as we did last season, be prepared to watch Ipswich dig their heels in.

So, who is going down alongside Southampton and Leicester if it is not Ipswich?

I would have to say Fulham.

The Cottagers have not looked back since their promotion in 2022. A top half finish upon their return, then Marco Silva steered them 21 points clear of the drop last term.

Their supremo will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat this campaign though.

Aleksandar Mitrovic left last summer and Fulham adapted without his goals, this time around they have lost the best holding midfielder Joao Palhinha in the league. Palhinha averaged 4.60 tackles per game and I think it is just a void too large to fill.

At 7.4013/2 on the Exchange, a punt on Fulham to be relegated appeals.

Erling Haaland top EPL scorer, Southampton to be relegated & West Ham to finish in the top half

This can be found via #OddsOnThat in the section of odds up to 9/110.00.

Southampton look a great price for an instant return to the Championship. All three of the promoted sides last term made an instant return, perhaps a sign of increasing gulf between the first and second tier.

This isn't an angle based purely off that though, more about the man in the Saints dugout: Russell Martin.

Highly regarded for sure but his unwavering commitment to playing out from the back could be Southampton's undoing. Just look at how Burnley fared last term.

Martin's side conceded 63 goals last term, only two fewer than relegated Birmingham, and this figure should rise this term as the Saints face a higher calibre of opposition.

There is a lot to get excited about if you are a West Ham fan.

They have kept hold of their hottest properties this summer, secured the services of Julen Lopetegui and backed the Spaniard.

Lopetegui's system needs a big battering ram of a number 9. And West Ham have obliged by signing Niclas Fullkrug. He will act as the perfect foil for Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus and co. Then factor in the signing of the Championship's best winger Crysencio Summerville and highlight regarded centre back Max Kilman and there is a lot to like with the Hammers.

Top half finishes became a staple of David Moyes tenure and I see nothing changing this campaign.

Declan Rice to have 5+ EPL assists, Gabriel Magalhaes & William Saliba each to have 2+ headed EPL goals

Find this via #OddsOnThat - up to 9/110.00, exactly like the other one.

Arsenal are a real set piece threat, no top flight side netted more goals from dead ball situations then the Gunners (20). They have a dedicated set piece coach to be fair, Nicolas Jover and he deserves a lot of plaudits.

Gabriel Magalhaes netted four times last season, all of them with his head and all of them came via set pieces. Likewise, William Saliba scored twice, both from corners and both via his head.

Jover put Declan Rice on corner duty and this is where he grabbed some of his eight assists but with an assist per 90 average of 0.22 last term, he is more than capable of covering this line of five.

Bruno Fernandes SuperBoost!

Betfair are kicking off the new season with a SuperBoost at Old Trafford, with the hope that Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes will be fouled 1 or more times.

Fernandes, who has just signed a new deal at the club, won 1 or more fouls in eight of his last 10 Premier League games for Manchester United at the back end of last season - winning 14 in total.

Fulham will know he is the main attacking threat and will have to stay tight to stop him pulling the strings.

Indeed, since his Manchester United debut in 2020, Bruno has been fouled more times than any other player a the club (180). Let's hope he can win one more, with the SuperBoosted price of 1/12.00 (up from 4/91.44)!

Now read Mark O'Haire's Premier League 1-20 predictions here!