Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for Matchday 24

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Brighton v Everton: Back Toffees to take at least a point

Saturday 31 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Since the start of December, only bottom two sides Burnley (5) and Wolves (6) have earned fewer points in the Premier League than Brighton (8), who have just one win in 10 league games in this time (D5 L4).

Betfair Bet: Back Everton and Draw @ 5/61.84

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Leeds v Arsenal: Back both teams to score

Saturday 31 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Leeds are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), last having a longer run in the same top-flight campaign between March and May 2021 (6 - W3 D3). 

Betfair Bet: Back Both team to score @ 9/101.90

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Wolves v Bournemouth: Back unders at Molineux 

Saturday 31 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Between May and December, Wolves conceded in all 11 of their Premier League home games, conceding 26 goals in total. They've since kept a clean sheet in their last two at Molineux, their longest run since a four-game streak in April/May 2023.

Betfair Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 21/202.05

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Chelsea v West Ham: Back Blues win and goals in London derby

Saturday 31 January, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Chelsea have won their last four Premier League games against West Ham by an aggregate score of 15-2. It's their longest winning run against the Hammers since a run of six between 2006 and 2008. 

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Liverpool v Newcastle: Back second-half goals

Saturday 31 January, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

No side has scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games this season than Liverpool (13), while only Bournemouth (13) have conceded more in this time frame than Newcastle (12).

Betfair Bet: Back second-half to have most goals @ 1/12.00

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Man Utd v Fulham: Back Mbeumo to strike in home win

Sunday 1 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

In the last two seasons, only Mohamed Salah (55) and Erling Haaland (49) have had a hand in more Premier League goals than Bryan Mbeumo (28 goals, 8 assists). Man Utd won just 20% of games while Mbeumo was at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations this season (P5 W1 D3 L1), compared to 50% with the Cameroonian in the starting XI (P18 W9 D5 L4).

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Aston Villa v Brentford: Back Watkins to haunt old club again

Sunday 1 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins has scored six goals in his seven Premier League starts against former side Brentford, only netting more against Brighton (9) and Arsenal (7). Watkins is just two goals away from being only the second Englishman to score 10+ goals in each of his first six Premier League campaigns after Ian Wright (1992-93 to 1997-98). 

Betfair Bet: Back Watkins to score @ 7/52.40

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Nottm Forest v Crystal Palace: Back Forest to keep it clean

Sunday 1 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Since MD16, Crystal Palace have won the fewest points (2), scored the fewest goals (4), lost the most games (6) and have the worst goal difference (-12) in the Premier League. 

Nottingham Forest are looking to keep a clean sheet in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of four in December/January last season. They've recorded shutouts in their last two despite facing a combined xG of 3.91, the joint third most of any side across MD22 and MD23.  

Betfair Bet: Back Forest to win to nil @ 12/53.40

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Tottenham v Man City: Back Semenyo to sink Spurs again

Sunday 1 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Thomas Frank has won just four of his last 22 home Premier League matches, with an identical record (W2 D3 L6) across his last 11 games with Brentford as in his first 11 with Spurs (W4 D6 L12 overall). Frank has the worst points per game at home of any Spurs boss in Premier League history (0.82). 

Man City's Antoine Semenyo has scored five goals in his last eight Premier League appearances, the joint most of any player in that timeframe (15 December onwards). One of those was a late winner against Spurs for Bournemouth in January, with only Eric Cantona in 1992-93 (Leeds and Man Utd) and Benito Carbone in 1999-00 (Sheff Wed and Aston Villa) scoring against Spurs for two teams in a single season. 

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Sunderland v Burnley: Back Brobbey for a goal

Monday 1 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Brian Brobbey has scored three goals in his last four Premier League appearances for Sunderland and has the best minutes per goal ratio of any Black Cats player this season (one every 175 minutes). It's the fifth best ratio by a Sunderland player in a season (750+ mins played) and best since Jermain Defoe in 2015-16 (15 goals, one every 170 mins). 

Betfair Bet: Back Brobbey to score @ 7/42.75

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Now get Alan Shearer's predictions for every matchday 24 fixture (from 9am Friday)

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