Premier League Opta Stats MD 24: Eight bets ranging from 11/10 to 7/1
The League Cup final taking place on Sunday means we have just eight Premier League fixtures this weekend, but Mike Norman has analysed the Opta stats to come up with a related bet in each game, ranging from 11/10 up to just over 7/1...
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Fulham v Wolves
Cottagers' strong defence won't hold out this time
The Opta Stat:
"Fulham have the highest expected goals against total in the Premier League this season (41.2) but have conceded just 30 goals. Their difference of conceding 11 fewer goals than their xG against suggests is the highest in the competition so far this term. Fulham are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Wolves (failing to score in the last four) since a 5-0 victory in March 2012 (D2 L3)."
The Betfair Bet:
Everton v Aston Villa
Dyche's win to nil Goodison start to continue
The Opta Stat:
"Everton have won their last two Premier League home games (both 1-0), as many as they had in their previous 10 at Goodison Park (D2 L6). Aston Villa have lost their last three Premier League games, conceding more in these three defeats (11) as they had in their first seven matches under Unai Emery (7)."
The Betfair Bet:
Leeds v Southampton
New manager bounce to strike again
The Opta Stat:
"Leeds have lost just one of their 14 Premier League home games against Southampton (W7 D6) and are unbeaten in their last eight since a 1-0 loss in February 1998. This is just Leeds' second game starting the day in the relegation zone this season, following their 2-1 win at Liverpool in October. The Whites have won four of their last six league games when starting the day in the bottom three (D1 L1)."
The Betfair Bet:
Leicester v Arsenal
Expect Saka to star in a Gunners win
The Opta Stat:
"Leicester are winless in 18 Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table (D2 L16) since a 1-0 win at Manchester United in January 1998. Bukayo Saka has been involved in 49 Premier League goals for Arsenal (26 goals, 23 assists). Should he score or assist in this game, he would become the youngest player (21y 173d on the day of this game) to reach 50 Premier League goal involvements since Cesc Fabregas in April 2008 (20y 337d)."
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham v Nottm Forest
Back Hammers to get the better of weak travellers
The Opta Stat:
"West Ham have won seven of their last eight Premier League home games against promoted sides (L1), including each of the last four in a row. Nottingham Forest have earned the joint-fewest points (6), scored the fewest goals (3) and conceded the third highest amount of goals (25) in Premier League away games this season. They've also lost both visits to London this term by an aggregate score of 7-0."
The Betfair Bet:
Bournemouth v Manchester City
No mistakes from City this week
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The Opta Stat:
"Man City have won all 11 of their Premier League games against Bournemouth, the best 100% win rate in the competition's history. Jack Grealish has been involved in seven goals in 18 Premier League games for Man City this season (3 goals, 4 assists), one more than he was in 26 appearances last term (3 goals, 3 assists). All seven of these have come away from home so far this term."
The Betfair Bet:
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Reds can win but not without conceding
The Opta Stat:
"Liverpool have lost two of their last three away Premier League games against London sides, as many as they had in their previous 24 visits to the capital (W14 D8). After a run of four Premier League games without a win (D1 L3), Liverpool have won their last two. They've won them both by a 2-0 scoreline, having kept just one clean sheet in their previous 10 matches."
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham v Chelsea
Potter's low-scorers likely to fight out another dull affair
The Opta Stat:
"Chelsea have scored just six goals in their last 11 Premier League games - no team has scored fewer since the start of November (the first game in this run). Indeed, the Blues have netted more than once in just one of their last 14 league games (2-0 vs Bournemouth). Chelsea's Premier League games have seen just 46 goals this season (F23 A23), fewer than any other side.
The Betfair Bet:
Stats-related Best Bet:
Football... Only Bettor. Watch now.
Recommended bets
Recommended Bet Of The Week (since MD7)
Staked: 16 pts
Returned: 22.6 pts
P/L: +6.6 pts
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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
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