Premier League Opta Stats and Predictions: Back 22/1 tip and 7/2 Amex Bet Builder
Alex Boyes returns to deliver the best Opta stat related bets ahead of a slightly reduced Premier League schedule, including a 7/24.50 best bet on Saturday at the Amex...
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Villa and Brighton should win at home with goals galore
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Man Utd too short so chance 22/123.00 #Oddsonthat
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City's record v Bournemouth means goals are coming
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Neto is good enough for the bigger sides
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Best bet Toney in 11/43.75 Monday night punt
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest
PL games breed goals
The Opta Stat:
"Aston Villa have only failed to score in three of their 25 Premier League games this season, though one of those was the reverse fixture against Nottingham Forest. At home, they've scored in each of their last 26
at Villa Park, their longest such run in the top-flight since a run of 33 between May 1982 and December 1983. Indeed, Nottingham Forest have scored in all eight of their Premier League games under Nuno Espírito Santo, netting 15 goals in total (1.9 per game). It's just two fewer goals than they scored in 17 league games under Steve Cooper this season."
The Betfair Bet:
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Brighton & Hove Albion v Everton
De Zerbi's Brighton are back
The Opta Stat:
"Nine of Brighton's 10 Premier League wins this season have seen them score at least three goals, beating Brentford 2-1 in the other. They've drawn five and lost four of their nine games when scoring only once in
Premier League games this term. Indeed, Brighton are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games (W5 D5) since a 3-1 loss to West Ham in August. The Seagulls have both scored and conceded a goal in 14 of their last 15 at the Amex Stadium, with the exception being a goalless draw with Wolves last month."
The Betfair Bet:
Crystal Palace v Burnley
Can Kompany shut out Palace?
The Opta Stat:
"Each of Burnley's last seven Premier League away wins against London sides has been to nil - they're winless in their last 22 top-flight games when conceding at least once in the capital (D5 L17) since
beating Chelsea 3-2 in August 2017. Indeed, Excluding own goals, no side has had fewer different scorers than Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season (9 - level with Sheffield United), with injured duo Eberechi Eze (5) and Michael Olise (6) netting 39% of their goals this term (11/28)."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester United v Fulham
Red Devils back in form
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester United have scored 17 goals across their last seven Premier League games, at an average of 2.4 per game. They'd averaged just 1.0 goal per game across their first 18 league games this season (18 in 18). Indeed, Rasmus Højlund has scored in each of his last six Premier League appearances - the only Manchester United player to score in more consecutive games in the competition is Ruud van Nistelrooy (10 in 2003 and 8 in 2001-2002)."
The Betfair Bet:
Bournemouth v Manchester City
Pep loves the South Coast
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has won all 12 of his games against Bournemouth in all competitions by an aggregate scoreline of 37-7, his best 100%-win record against an opponent in his managerial career."
The Betfair Bet:
Arsenal v Newcastle United
Gunners' brick wall
The Opta Stat:
"Ayoze Pérez was the last Newcastle player to score an away Premier League goal against Arsenal (December 2014), with the Magpies failing to convert any of their 63 attempts on goal at the Emirates since. The Gunners have kept seven consecutive home clean sheets against Newcastle. Indeed, Arsenal have faced just two shots on target in their last three Premier League games (1 v Liverpool, 1 v West Ham and none vs Burnley), conceding a combined xG of just 0.9 across those matches. The last side to face one or fewer shots on target in four consecutive Premier League matches were Arsenal themselves between April-May 2021."
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Sheffield United
Neto leads Wolves attack
The Opta Stat:
"Despite making just 16 appearances this season, Pedro Neto has provided nine assists with no Wolves player registering more in a single Premier League campaign (Adam Traoré also 9 in 37 apps in 2019-20). Seven of his nine assists this term have either been for an equalising goal (3) or a goal to put Wolves into the lead (4)." Sheffield United have lost five Premier League games by a margin of 5+ goals this season, the joint most such defeats of any side in a single Premier League campaign (also Derby County in 2007-08)."
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham United v Brentford
Toney could hammer, Hammers
The Opta Stat:
"West Ham United have faced 20+ shots in eight Premier League games this season, their most in a single season since 2017-18 (11 games). The Hammers have also faced 20+ shots in four of their last seven games. Indeed, Ivan Toney has scored 16 Premier League goals in his last 21 appearances in London (home and away games) for Brentford. In London derbies specifically, Toney has five goals in his last seven games. He's managed 20 shots in his six games since returning (netting four goals), and has had seven attempts in total in his last two vs Liverpool and Man City (and at least one in each half in each)."
The Betfair Bet:
Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -
(Single Recommended bet of the week)
Stake: 21pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +5.1
ROI: +24%
(Overall Column)
Stake: 213pts
Return: 242.98
P/L: +29.98
ROI: +14%
Now read Andy Robson's Saturday Acca with 4/15.00 tip!
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