Premier League Opta Stats: Back 11/2 Spurs tip and 7/1 Bet Builder at Anfield

Alexander Boyes
Published on 09 Mar 2024 at 11:00
Updated on 15 Mar 2024 at 08:59
3:00 min read

The biggest game of the Premier League season takes place on Sunday at Anfield, so Alex Boyes has waded through the Opta stats to find a best bet for that game, as well as the nine other top-flight fixtures this weekend.

Old Trafford won't be a classic
Luton can get something at Palace
Back Arsenal to keep on scoring at 5/23.50
Foden and Salah the ones to back at Anfield
Back young English talent to fire at Stamford Bridge
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Manchester United v Everton

Goals an issue at Old Trafford

The Opta Stat:

"Everton have the 10^th-highest xG in the Premier League this season (41.6), but the third-lowest goal total (29), giving them the biggest difference between expected goals and goals scored in the competition this term (12.6). Indeed, Manchester United have scored fewer goals than any other side currently in the top-half of the Premier League table this season. Their 37 goals is their fewest after 27 games since 2015-16 (36), while this is the latest into a top-flight campaign they have a negative goal difference (-2) since they ended the 1989-90 campaign on -1."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5

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Bournemouth v Sheffield United

Cherries too sweet for Wilder

The Opta Stat:

"Away from home in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United have won the fewest games (1), earned the fewest points (5), suffered the most defeats (10), scored the fewest goals (10) and conceded the most goals (30) of any side. Indeed, the Blades have conceded 72 goals in their 27 Premier League matches this season, the most by any side in any of England's top four divisions at this stage of a season since Doncaster Rovers in 1997-98 in the fourth tier (73)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bournemouth to win to nil @ 7/5

Crystal Palace v Luton Town

Back the Hatters

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have dropped 16 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, only losing more in 2004-05 (18), 1992-93 (17) and 2021-22 (17). Indeed, only the current top three sides Liverpool (24), Manchester City (15) and Arsenal (15) have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games this season than Luton (14), with 38% of their overall strikes coming after the 75^th Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have conceded more often in this timeframe than any other side (20)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Luton double chance @ EVS

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Fulham

Muniz the man on form

The Opta Stat:

"Having not scored in any of his first 10 Premier League appearances, Rodrigo Muniz has since netted five in his last five league games for Fulham. Indeed, his five goals are the most by a player aged 22 or younger in a Premier League season for the Cottagers since Collins John in 2005-06 (11)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Rodrigo Muniz to score anytime @ 23/10

Arsenal v Brentford

Back the free scoring Gunners to continue

The Opta Stat:

"Arsenal have won all seven of their Premier League matches in 2024, scoring 31 times and conceding just three. They are the first side in English top-flight history to have scored 30+ goals in their first seven games in a year, with 29 the previous most by Sunderland in 1893 and Arsenal in 1931."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 3.5 Arsenal goals @ 5/2

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur

There can only be goals

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham have only won one of their last six away Premier League games (D3 L2) despite scoring two or more goals in five of those games, all of which have been in their last five trips. Indeed, Spurs have scored in all 26 Premier League matches under Ange Postecoglou so far. Aston Villa, meanwhile, have scored 59 Premier League goals this season, already their most in a season at this level since 2007-08 under Martin O'Neill (71). It's their most at this stage of a top-flight season since 1932-33 (68)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both teams to score in both halves @ 11/2

Brighton & Hove Albion v Nottingham Forest

Seagulls too good at home

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton and Hove Albion have kept just three clean sheets in their last 31 Premier League matches and have lost two games by 3+ goals already in 2024 (4-0 vs Luton, 3-0 vs Fulham), only one fewer than they did in the entirety of 2023 (3). Indeed, the Seagulls are unbeaten in 11 Premier League home games (W5 D6), their longest ever top-flight run without defeat at home. In any division, it's their longest home league unbeaten spell since going 14 without defeat in their promotion-winning 2016-17 Championship campaign from September to February that term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Brighton to win & BTTS @ 2/1

West Ham United v Burnley

Can Burnley take advantage of Hammers in Europe?

The Opta Stat:

"Burnley enjoyed 74.7% possession in their 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth on Sunday, their highest average possession figure in a Premier League match. They had 20 shots without scoring, their joint-most in a match in the competition without finding the net, with the 20 they had in a 1-0 defeat against West Brom in August 2017 also the match in which they'd previously recorded their most possession (67.8%) before last Sunday's game."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Burnley to have 15 or more shots @ 13/5

Liverpool v Manchester City

Leave Haaland and KDB

The Opta Stat:

"Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 17 goals in 19 appearances for Liverpool against Manchester City in all competitions, scoring 11 and assisting seven. It's his highest number of goal involvements against any opponent for the Reds. Phil Foden meanwhile, has been directly involved in 18 Premier League goals this season (11 goals, 7 assists), his most in a single campaign for Manchester City. Foden also ranks in the top five for each of chances created in open play (50), shots attempted (83) and shots on target (34) in the Premier League this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Salah and Foden to score or assist & both teams to score 2+ goals @ 7/1

Chelsea v Newcastle United

Young Lions to fire

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle's Anthony Gordon has had a hand in 15 goals in his last 27 Premier League appearances (10 goals, 5 assists), five more than he managed in his first 80 games in the competition beforehand (7 goals, 3 assists). Gordon has also netted in his last two Premier League games against Chelsea. Cole Palmer, meanwhile, has been directly involved in 17 goals in his last 18 Premier League appearances for Chelsea (10 goals, 7 assists). His assist against Brentford took him ahead of Arjen Robben in 2004-05 (16) to give him the most goals and assists combined by a player aged 21 or younger in a season in the competition for the Blues."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Cole Palmer and Antony Gordon to score or assist @ 4/1

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 22pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +4.1
ROI: +19%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 231pts
Return: 255.9
P/L: +24.8
ROI: +11%

Now read why Lewis Jones is backing Burnley at West Ham!

Recommended bets

Back both teams to score in both halves in Villa v Spurs @ 11/26.50

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