English Premier League

Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets priced from 9/5 to a 7/1 Bet Builder on Sunday

Alexander Boyes
26 Aug 2023
3:00 min read

Luis Diaz Liverpool and Colombia — Diaz is looking to score in Liverpool's opening three league games

Two winners last week at 5/23.50 and 11/43.75 though we were so close to another couple. Read this week's best Opta stats as we find a bet for each Premier League game this weekend.

Can we match last season's 80% hit rate this week?
Captain Son's record v Bournemouth gets us excited
Keep profiting from March before rotation
A blockbuster game at St James' with 7/18.00 Bet Builder
Claim your free Acca or Bet Builder here!

Chelsea v Luton Town

Sterling on the money

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Raheem Sterling has been involved in 15 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against newly promoted sides (11 goals, 4 assists), including five goal involvements in five games against such opposition for Chelsea last term (3 goals, 2 assists)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Raheem Sterling to score and assist @ 9/2

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Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur

Captain fantastic

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham captain Son Heung-min has been involved in seven goals across his last six Premier League starts against Bournemouth (5 goals, 2 assists), netting a brace at the Vitality Stadium back in March 2018. He created six chances for his teammates in this exact fixture last term, his highest tally in a single Premier League away game (133 away appearances)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Son Heuing-min to assist anytime @ 5/2

Arsenal v Fulham

Gabriel's dream opponent

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of last season, there have been 81 Premier League goals scored at the Emirates Stadium (4.05 per game on average), more than at any other venue during this period (55 for Arsenal & 26 against). Indeed, Arsenal defender Gabriel Magalhães has scored in three of his four Premier League appearances against Fulham, netting an 86^th-minute winner in this exact fixture last term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 3.5 goals and Gabriel Magalhaes 1+ shots on target @ 5/1

Brentford v Crystal Palace

Time for some small history

The Opta Stat:

"All four Premier League meetings between Brentford and Crystal Palace have been draws - no pair of sides has ever drawn each of their first five meetings in the competition before."

The Betfair Bet:

Back The Draw (Match Odds 90) @ 9/5

Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

xG doesn't lie

The Opta Stat:

"No team has conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than Everton (5), despite the Toffees facing just 22 shots, with only three teams facing fewer so far. Those 22 shots, however, have had an xG of 4.5, the second-most of any team (Fulham, 6.7), with the shots having an average xG value of 0.20, the highest in the division. On the other hand, and despite losing their opening two games, only Brighton (43) have attempted more shots across the opening two Premier League matchdays than Wolves (39), netting just a single goal from an xG of 4.48 (-3.48, the biggest negative differential in the division so far)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both Everton and Wolves to have 5+ shots on target @ 7/2

Manchester United v Nottingham Forest

Old Trafford is a fortress

The Opta Stat:

"Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 30 games at Old Trafford (W26 D4). It is their longest home unbeaten run since a 40-game stretch between September 2016 and December 2017. However, Taiwo Awoniyi has scored in his last six Premier League appearances for Nottingham Forest, scoring eight times, equalling Stan Collymore's record in March and April 1995. Only two African players have ever scored in seven Premier League games in a row - Emmanuel Adebayor (Dec 2007 - Feb 2008, Arsenal) and Mohamed Salah (Aug - Oct 2021, Liverpool)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Awoniyi to score but Man Utd to win @ 6/1

Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United

Solly goes marching on

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton's Solly March has been involved in 15 goals in his last 19 Premier League starts (10 goals, 5 assists) and is looking to score in three consecutive top-flight appearances for the first time. He could also become the first Seagulls player to score in their first three matches in a top-flight season. March also had five shots against Wolves last time out, four of which hit the target, and came across both halves."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Solly March to have a shot on target in both halves @ 16/5

Burnley v Aston Villa

Emeryball catching on

The Opta Stat:

"After losing 5-1 to Newcastle in their first Premier League game this season, Aston Villa won 4-0 against Everton on MD2. They are only the second team in top-flight history to lose their opening game by 4+ goals then win their second game by 4+ goals, after Burnley in 1925-26 (lost 10-0 vs Aston Villa then won 4-0 vs Leicester). Villa also netted five in midweek against Hibernian."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Aston Villa goals @ 7/2

Sheffield United v Manchester City

City to keep it clean

The Opta Stat:

"Julián Álvarez netted his 10^th Premier League goal for Manchester City in their 1-0 win over Newcastle, with his last three goals all being the winning goal in the game. City have won all nine games when Álvarez has scored, with only Chris Smalling scoring in more Premier League games and ending on the winning side each time in Premier League history (11). Indeed, Manchester City have conceded just one goal in their 10 Premier League games against Sheffield United. Their clean sheet ratio of 90% against the Blades is the highest one team has against another in the competition (min. five meetings)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Alvarez to score, City to be leading at HT and BTTS - No @ 3/1

Newcastle United v Liverpool

St James' spectacle

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League, a run of 13 matches (W8 D5) since losing 4-1 at Man City in April. They've fallen behind in five games in that sequence, gaining nine points from losing positions. Newcastle though haven't lost any of their last 22 Premier League games when they've taken the lead (W19 D3) since a 2-1 loss at Liverpool last August. At St James' Park, the Magpies are yet to lose in the league under Eddie Howe after taking the lead (W20 D6). Luis Diaz meanwhile, has scored in each of Liverpool's opening two Premier League games this season - the only three players to score in the Reds' first three Premier League matches of a season are Robbie Fowler in 1994-95, Daniel Sturridge in 2013-14 and Sadio Mané in 2017-18."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Diaz to score and both teams to score 2+ goals @ 7/1

Completely Free Acca or Bet Builder

Remember, Betfair are offering a completely free acca this weekend in August, and you can claim yours for this weekend right here!

Based on the reccomendations above, why not try this match odds 90 acca this weekend?

Tottenham and Brighton to win, plus Brentford v Palace (draw) and Newcastle Liverpool (draw) is currently paying 20/121.00

Back Tottenham, Brighton, Brentford v Palace (draw) and Newcastle v Liverpool (draw) @ 20/121.00

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Recommended bets

Back Solly March to have a shot on target in both halves @ 16/54.20

Opta Stats P/L (Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 2pt

Return: 3.0

P/L: + 1.0

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