Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets priced from Evens to an 8/1 Arsenal v Chelsea Bet Builder
The Premier League has its third round of matches in a week and Alex Boyes has studied the Opta stats to find a recommended bet for all 10 fixtures this Bank Holiday weekend..
-
Stats suggest Exchange price is wrong on opening game
-
Toney to find goal and ref's book in 17/2 double
-
In-form City trio can win us 7/2 Bet Builder
-
Saka part of Arsenal Bet Builder v Chelsea
-
MD9's 80% success & 15 pts of profit the aim again
Crystal Palace v West Ham
Have to get on at odds-against
The Opta Stat:
"Crystal Palace haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 17 Premier League games against West Ham, though they've also scored against them in each of the last 11. Only two Premier League fixtures have seen both teams score in more consecutive meetings than this one (11) - Fulham v Man City (15 between 2004 and 2011) and Newcastle v Wolves (13 between 2003 and 2021)."
The Betfair Bet:
Brentford v Nottingham Forest
Back the Toney double
The Opta Stat:
"Brentford striker Ivan Toney has scored in both of his previous league games against Nottingham Forest, with each of these coming in the Bees' 2020-21 promotion season from the Championship. He was booked in one of those games also while only three players in the Premier League this season have seen more yellows than Toney's nine."
The Betfair Bet:
Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers
xG kings will bounce back
The Opta Stat:
"Brighton have scored at least three goals in five different Premier League home games this season, as many times as they managed in the previous two campaigns combined. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have scored 3+ goals in more different home games this season. Wolves haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Premier League away games, since a goalless draw at Bournemouth in August. Wolves are winless in their last five on the road (D2 L3), having won two of their first four under Julen Lopetegui (D1 L1)."
The Betfair Bet:
Bournemouth v Leeds United
Leeds have history in Bournemouth
The Opta Stat:
"Leeds have both scored and conceded a goal in each of their last eight Premier League games. They last had a longer such run in league competition between October and November 1987 in the second tier (9 games). However, Leeds have won 10 of their 13 league games against Bournemouth (D2 L1), including nine of the last 10. It's their best league win rate against an opponent they've faced at least 10 times in their history (77%)."
The Betfair Bet:
Fulham v Manchester City
Back City's in-form trio
The Opta Stat:
"Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in seven goals in his last four Premier League appearances (3 goals, 4 assists), assisting in all four games. Teammate Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals this season, a record by a player in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record in a season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. Jack Grealish, meanwhile, has scored four goals and provided five assists in 12 Premier League away games for Man City this season, with only Haaland (12) and De Bruyne (10) involved in more. Grealish is averaging a goal or assist every 100 minutes on the road this term, the best ratio of any City player.
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Emery has Man Utd's number
The Opta Stat:
"Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has won two and drawn two of his four Premier League meetings with Manchester United. It's the most any manager has faced the Red Devils without losing in the competition, while he could also become the first manager to remain unbeaten in his first five against them."
The Betfair Bet:
Newcastle United v Southampton
Use #Oddsonthat to boost Newcastle price
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W12 D9), going down 1-0 at Sheffield United in January 2021. The Magpies have remained unbeaten in all 12 such home games in that time (W6 D6). Indeed, no side has lost fewer Premier League home games than Newcastle this season (1 - W9 D5). They've won their last three at St James' Park by an aggregate score of 10-2."
The Betfair Bet:
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur
The Egyptian King
The Opta Stat:
"Since Mohamed Salah joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (7). Salah netted both goals in Liverpool's 2-1 win over Spurs in the reverse fixture this season. He has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (8 goals, 3 assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six."
The Betfair Bet
Leicester City v Everton
Huge game at the bottom
The Opta Stat:
"Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. They last had a longer run without a league shutout between April and December 1994, a run of 21 which included their first 18 Premier League matches. The Foxes have also conceded first in each of their last five league matches."
The Betfair Bet:
Arsenal v Chelsea
Lampard suffers another loss
The Opta Stat:
"Mikel Arteta's first ever defeat as Arsenal manager was against Chelsea in his first home game in charge (second over all). Since then, he's won five of his seven meetings with the Blues in all competitions (D1 L1), though three of those wins have been at Stamford Bridge. Bukayo Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (9 goals, 7 assists). He's both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at the Emirates in the competition this season, with Alexis Sánchez the last Gunners player to do so more in a single campaign (4 in 2014-15)."
The Betfair Bet:
Recommended bets
New Customers can get £50 in free bets!
Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.
Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
Discover the latest articles
Upcoming Premier League Fixtures
No upcoming matches to display.
Most Read Stories
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Thursday's International Football Tips: Back 21/10 France and a win for Sweden
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Golden Boot Betting Guide: Who will win at the 2026 World Cup
-
Football Tips & Predictions
World Cup Tips: Full team-by-team guide and bets bets from Mark O'Haire
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Liverpool Manager: Andoni Iraola in line for Anfield job after shock Arne Slot sacking
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Champions League Final Tips: Kvara backed plus 12/1 Budapest Bet Builder