Premier League MD1: Stinch's Saturday best bets including a 23/1 double

• Cards on the agenda at Portman Road?

• Tasty double to kick-start the day

• Goals will continue to flow this season

• How will Brighton fair under their new boss?

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

Watch Football...Only Bettor Start of Season Special

Ipswich v Liverpool

The referee Tim Robinson showed over 3.5 cards in 15 of his 21 Premier League games last season (71%) at an average of 4.24 cards per-game. Despite finishing 2^nd in the Championship, Ipswich were the seventh most dirtiest team in the league, collecting 101 cards at an average of 2.20 per-game. Adding that to Liverpool's average of 1.84 per-game in 23/24 gives us an expected total of 4.04. With it being Ipswich's first game back in the Premier League for 22 years, they are going to be bang up for it, fighting for everything, especially with Manchester City away in their next game!

One battle will be to stop Luis Diaz on their right-hand side. The Colombian was fouled 1.1 times per-game last season but crucially they were often rough with 18 of the opposing right full-back/wing-back/right sided defenders being shown a card in his last 50 games across all competitions (36%). Axel Tuanzebe is the likely man to start at right-back in a back four for Ipswich and he looks a great at 9/2 to collect a card. He picked up 5 cards in 21 games last season, the majority a level below in the Championship.

On the other team, Wataru Endo looks a prime selection to pick up a card to stop any unwanted Ipswich attacks. Despite almost half his appearances coming as a substitute (9 v 20 starts), Endo still made the 5^th most fouls per-game in the Premier League last season at 1.7 per-game. This led to him collecting a yellow card in nine of his last 16 starts of 60+ minutes (56%). Referee Tim Robinson clearly doesn't stand for these fouls with him having booked Endo in two of the three Liverpool matches he was in charge of. Under Arne Slot, Endo's already picked up two yellow cards in friendlies.

Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth

When Nuno Espirito Santo took over Nottingham Forest just before Christmas they were hovering just one place above the relegation zone having lost five of their previous six games with just three wins in 17. Fast forward to the end of the season and Nuno comfortably managed to keep Forest up, with double the amount of wins including impressive victories over both Man Utd and Newcastle.

Home matches tended to be goal heavy with 7 of Forest's 11 home games under Nuno finishing over 2.5 goals. Last season Bournemouth had the joint 2^nd most matches finish over 2.5 goals with 27 of their 38 fixtures seeing three or more goals (71%). Away from home that % increased to 79% (15 of 19 games). In 23/24 the average goals in the Premier League rose to 3.28 goals per-game compared to 2.85 per-game the season before. Bournemouth won this fixture 3-2 last season in Nuno's first game in charge.

Everton v Brighton

Everton and Brighton are equally priced here at 2.789/5 each which seems unfair on The Toffees considering they have home advantage and Brighton have actually failed to win 9 of their last 10 games in the Premier League. Of course Brighton are under new management in the guise of 31 year-old Fabian Hurzeler who replaced Roberto de Zerbi.

This will be just Hurzeler's second full season in charge as a manager following winning the 2.Bundesliga with St Pauli last season. He originally took over on a temporary basis in 22/23 guiding the team from relegation candidates to promotion hopefuls including 10 wins in a row. Generally we know Brighton's recruitment on and off the field is one of the best but it may not be immediate success. Everton finished the season strongly at Goodison Park, winning their last five games without conceding and further back only losing three of their last 15 matches infront of their fans. They only conceded the 4^th fewest goals with the only the 'big 3' conceding fewer.

Now read Alexander Boyes' Opta Stats Pack