Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is back with his weekly notebook. He takes an early look at Saturday's barnstormer between Liverpool and Arsenal, where Darwin Nunez may see red and Arsenal are backed for a clean sheet...
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Nunez frustrated as goals dry up and offsides rocket
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Uruguayan striker in line Christmas cards
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Is wasteful Nunez a ticking time bomb?
It was supposed to be lift-off for Darwin Nunez. Remember those two clinical finishes at Newcastle to steal Liverpool a 2-1 win, against the odds? It felt like the only way was up for the Uruguayan striker.
Well, almost four months have passed, and Nunez cuts a more frustrated figure than ever having only added two more goals to his tally for the season.
A failure to score against Manchester United on Sunday means it's now 584 minutes of Premier League football without a goal. During this dry spell, he has missed eight "big chances" defined by Opta to a backdrop of 2.84 worth of non-penalty expected goals. That takes his tally to 15 big chances missed for the season - only Erling Haaland has missed more (18).
Nunez was only on the periphery of the 0-0 draw with United, quite an achievement for the supposed focal point of a side that managed to have 34 shots in a match. He looks lost in Jurgen Klopp's side with his positional play and movement off the ball so far away from the levels required.
That can be seen through his, quite frankly ridiculous, offside numbers in his last six matches. Having not been caught offside once in his first 11 Premier League games this season, Nunez has been flagged 14 times in his last six appearances, including three times against United. Only Anthony Elanga of Nottingham Forest has been flagged more times this season (15).
The results of his current malaise and underperformance are clearly hampering him, which in turn is creating a very frustrated player who looks on the edge. He picked up his third yellow card in his last five matches at Anfield after petulantly kicking the ball away after a silly block on Jonny Evans.
He was perhaps lucky that referee Michael Oliver didn't spot his clear dissent towards the assistant referee afterwards too, considering what happened to Diogo Dalot later in the game when he was dismissed for two quickfire yellow cards for dissent. Klopp was visibly annoyed by Nunez's lack of discipline, instructing his striker to calm down from the touchline.
All this frustration and clear pressure on the striker could be heading towards a crescendo, where he oversteps the mark. I'll be keeping my eyes firmly on his yellow and red card prices if this goal drought and offside frenzy continues.
Saliba & Gabriel - Arsenal's brick wall
Next up for Nunez and Liverpool in the Premier League is a tantalising and potentially pivotal fixture with Arsenal at Anfield on Saturday evening, live on Sky Sports.
There the Uruguayan will have to lock horns with the axis of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, who are the foundations of what is becoming a very serious Arsenal title challenge, which now has them at 5/23.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook. Arsenal have a win rate of 75% when they start together and 53% when they don't.
Those two were in imperious form in Arsenal's 2-0 win over Brighton on Sunday. The Gunners made Roberto De Zerbi's usually spunky side look flaccid and ended their run of scoring in 32 consecutive Premier League games. They could barely muster a shot let alone create a high probability chance. It took Brighton 64 minutes to register an effort and only managed six shots in the entire game after Arsenal decided to sit deeper on their lead.
Saliba and Gabriel, supported by Declan Rice, were monstrous in denying Brighton any chance of an out-ball into Evan Ferguson. De Zerbi said Brighton couldn't compete with Arsenal physically, losing second balls and hailed the north Londoners as the best team his side have faced this season.
Arsenal have the joint-best record in the Premier League for goals conceded with Liverpool (15) and clean sheets (7) - level with Newcastle. But if you dig a little deeper into the underlying metrics and it paints an even better picture for Arsenal's defensive process.
Mikel Arteta's desire to make his team tougher to beat this season is paying dividends as they have given up the fewest expected goals against (13.03) and expected goals on target conceded (11.85) - a clear indicator of just how hard opposition teams have it when tasked with breaking this unit down.
Liverpool are going to find this out on Saturday.
Considering how blunt their attacking process has been against both Crystal Palace and United, this just may prove to be the moment for Arsenal to stamp their authority on the title race. Arsenal win to nil with the Betfair Sportsbook at 5/16.00 will surely shorten the closer we get to kick-off.