Premier League Correct Score Tips: Blues can secure Anfield draw

Kevin Hatchard
03 March 2021
3:30 min read

Thomas Tuchel is unbeaten as Chelsea coach

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Using Expected Goals data from our friends at Infogol, Kevin Hatchard takes a look at Wednesday and Thursday's Premier League fixtures...

"The underlying numbers suggest Liverpool's recent performances at Anfield should have yielded more points, but Chelsea have barely given opponents a sniff of goal since Thomas Tuchel arrived."

Back 1-1 in Liverpool v Chelsea at 7.87/1

Foxes can win away again

Burnley v Leicester City
Wednesday, 18:00

Burnley are still in the relegation dogfight, and their struggles in front of goal are a big part of the Clarets' problem. The Infogol stats show they have an Expected Goals For figure of just 24.7 (an average of under 1.0 per game), and they have only actually scored 18 times. They don't create enough big chances, and they aren't always clinical enough when they do. They have drawn a blank in five of their last eight competitive games.

Leicester are regular scorers and winners on the road. They have won five of their last eight away games in the Premier League, and in all five of those victories, they have scored exactly two goals. In attack, they have posted an xG figure of above 1.0 in nine of their last ten PL away games.

Back 0-2 at 10.519/2

Blades to be blunted again

Sheffield United v Aston Villa
Wednesday, 18:00

European qualification is still on the agenda for Aston Villa, and they have built their success on a solid rear-guard. They have leaked just 26 goals, although their Expected Goals Against figure of 33.3 suggests they have ridden their luck from time to time. They have defied those numbers to post five clean sheets in their last eight league games.

The Infogol model suggests Sheffield United should have collected more points and scored more goals, but the underlying numbers would still have them in the bottom three. They are particularly inefficient in front of goal - they have scored just 15 goals, 11.1 goals below their xGF figure.

Back 0-2 at 11.010/1

Red Devils to come out on top

Crystal Palace v Manchester United
Wednesday, 20:15

The Infogol numbers suggest Crystal Palace should actually be 18th in the table, and that the Eagles are overperforming xG in both attack and defence. Only Burnley have a lower Expected Goals For figure, and only West Brom have a worse Expected Goals Against tally. If you look at their last five PL outings, they have posted an XGF figure of below 1.0 every single time, including an absurd 2-1 win at Brighton that saw them lose the xG battle 3.03 to 0.27. Star player Wilfried Zaha is unlikely to face his former club because of injury.

United have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games, but they'll be wary of a Palace side that beat them 3-1 at Old Trafford, putting up an xGF figure of 1.82 in the process. United's goalscoring on the road has slowed down, but it's worth considering they have had tough recent fixtures at Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Overall they have scored 25 goals in 13 PL away games at an average of around two per game.

Back 1-2 at 9.89/1

Toffees to show no mercy

West Brom v Everton
Thursday, 18:00

Former Everton boss Sam Allardyce is on track to be relegated from the top flight for the first time as a manager, and the Toffees look unlikely to do him any favours. Even though the Infogol model suggests Everton are overperforming at both ends of the pitch, they are still in the mix for European qualification. They have been particularly good on their travels, winning five of their last six, including a memorable 2-0 victory at old foes Liverpool.

West Brom have the worst Expected Goals Against figure in the division, with 51.8, and they have actually leaked 55 goals. They are at least creating chances at the other end - the Baggies have posted an xGF figure of 1.0 or higher in five of their last nine games.

Back 1-2 at 9.617/2

London derby to end all square

Fulham v Tottenham
Thursday, 18:00

Fulham have moved to within three points of safety, and the Infogol model shows they should actually be well clear of the bottom three. The Cottagers should have scored 11 goals more than they have, although the model also suggests should have conceded nine goals more. In reality, Scott Parker's men have lost just one of their last eight games in the league, and they have drawn five times in that spell.

Tottenham just smashed Burnley 4-0, but their recent away form in the league is poor, and they have posted an xGF figure of below 1.0 in five of their last ten road matches at this level. The reverse fixture ended 1-1, and that could be the outcome again here.

Back 1-1 at 7.87/1

Tremendous Tuchel can avoid defeat

Liverpool v Chelsea
Thursday, 20:15

Given Chelsea's revival under Thomas Tuchel and Liverpool's mounting injury problems, I was surprised to see the champions trading as short as 2.35/4 to win this in the Match Odds market. The Blues are yet to lose under the former Borussia Dortmund and PSG coach, they have conceded just two goals in nine matches, and they haven't allowed any of their opponents an xGF figure of above 1.0. Manchester United were held to 0.39 xGF at the weekend, and Tottenham only managed 0.65. Neither team scored.

Liverpool have scored just twice across their last six Premier League home games, and they have critical absences in defence and midfield. That said, the xG suggests they should have been picking up more points from those recent outings, but haven't been clinical enough in front of goal. Indeed, over the course of the campaign, the Infogol model suggests Liverpool should be in the top three.

This is a huge game in the race for the top four, and if it's level in the latter stages, don't be surprised if a little fear creeps in on both sides. As the excellent Mark O'Haire reminds us in his match preview, there have been 23 meeting between teams in the so-called Big Six, and 61% of them have featured fewer than three goals. I think this game will increase that percentage.

Back 1-1 at 7.87/1