Premier League and FA Cup Opta Stats: Back 9/1 scorer tip and 4/1 Bet Builder
A disappointing weekend last time out has not deterred Alex Boyes digging into both the Premier League and FA Cup Opta stats to find a best bet for each game based on the current trends. The column remains in healthy profit for the season as we look for more winners this weekend...
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2/13.00 in-form Wissa the one to back at Turf Moor
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Luton will concede but get them onside at 7/24.50
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Spurs and Villa goals on the cards again
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Why you should back Sterling in 9/110.00 double
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Salah to inspire Liverpool at Old Trafford at 4/15.00
Burnley v Brentford
Back Wissa for the price over Toney
The Opta Stat:
"Brentford striker Yoane Wissa has scored in each of his last three Premier League games, and has now scored exactly seven goals in all three of his campaigns in the competition. He's never scored in four consecutive matches within the top two divisions in his European league career."
The Betfair Bet:
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Luton Town v Nottingham Forest
Morris to cause Nuno headache
The Opta Stat:
"Nottingham Forest have won just two of their last 24 Premier League away games (D6 L16), winning 1-0 at Chelsea in September and 3-1 at Newcastle in December. They've also kept just two clean sheets in these 24 games, with both shutouts coming in London (1-0 v Chelsea, 0-0 v Crystal Palace). Indeed, Carlton Morris has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games for Luton. He's been involved in four (3 goals, 1 assist) in his last four at Kenilworth Road, one more than in his first 10 at home in the competition (1 goal, 2 assists)."
The Betfair Bet:
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur
Get on Spurs goals
The Opta Stat:
"Only the current top three sides have scored more Premier League goals this season than Tottenham (59). Their rate of 2.2 goals per game is their second highest in a single Premier League campaign, after 2016-17 (2.3). Indeed, following their 4-0 win at Aston Villa last time out, Tottenham are looking to secure back-to-back away league wins for the first time since October. They've scored at least twice in each of their last six on the road, only once having a longer run in their league history (10 between April and October 1960)."
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham United v Aston Villa
Can we profit from first half goals?
The Opta Stat:
"Aston Villa have won each of their last three Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 10-3. They last had a longer winning run on the road in the top-flight between November 2008 and February 2009 (7). Indeed, only Arsenal (31) have scored more first-half goals than Aston Villa (29) in the Premier League this season, while only Manchester City (14) have been leading at half-time more often than the Villans (13)."
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Coventry
Chance Palmer to get us a decent price
The Opta Stat:
"Kasey Palmer has been involved in seven goals in his five FA Cup appearances for Coventry City, scoring three and assisting four. No player remaining in the competition has been involved in more goals this term than Palmer (5 - 2 goals, 3 assists)."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester City v Newcastle United
City too short so use the #Oddsonthat
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle have lost 15 of their last 16 away games against Manchester City in all competitions, including the last nine in a row. The exception was a 2-0 League Cup victory in October 2014. Indeed, since the start of last season, only Paul Mullin (9) has scored more goals in the FA Cup proper than Man City's Erling Haaland (8). Haaland's eight goals have been scored in just two different games, netting a hat-trick against Burnley in last season's quarter-final, and a five-goal haul against Luton in the last round this year."
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Leicester City
Sterling loves the lesser opposition
The Opta Stat:
"Chelsea have lost just one of their last 21 home games in the FA Cup (W18 D2), losing 2-0 to Manchester United in the fifth round in 2018-19. Indeed, winger Raheem Sterling has scored four goals in his last two appearances against Leicester in all competitions, including a brace for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in August 2022 - his first goals for the Blues."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester United v Liverpool
Salah loves Old Trafford
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester United have failed to score in six of their last nine meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, including the last two. They've not gone three in a row without a goal against the Reds since May 1977. Indeed, Liverpool have progressed from 17 of their last 18 FA Cup quarter-final ties, failing only with a 2-1 defeat against Tottenham in 1994-95 in this run."
The Betfair Bet:
Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -
(Single Recommended bet of the week)
Stake: 23pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +3.1
ROI: +13%
(Overall Column)
Stake: 240pts
Return: 260.1
P/L: +20.1
ROI: +8%
Now read our Fulham v Spurs match preview here!
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