Dave Tindall's Premier League Trends - How it works...
The trends feature branched out to football over the summer with previews for both the World Cup winner and Golden Boot.
Both performed well. The tip of a France v Argentina final at 25/126.00 fell just short as the French went out in the last four while top-ranked Erling Haaland landed the 12/113.00 each-way top scorer money by scoring seven times - a tally that would won the Golden Boot in 10 of the previous 12 World Cups.
Winners Spain were ranked second in the outright trends while top scorer Kylian Mbappe was joint-second in the Golden Boot trends so we were definitely on the right lines.
So let's turn to domestic matters and see if we can use history to guide us towards this season's Premier League winners.
The 10 trends categories are: Last Season's Finish, Last Season's Points, Second-Half Of Season Points, Goals For, Goals Against, Goal Difference, Manager, Latest Title, Europe and Odds.
Last Season's Finish - tough to defend?
Let's use the opening category to remind ourselves how the trends points scoring system works. The key is frequency and points tallies are awarded based on where each of the last 10 title winners finished the previous season.
There used to be a feeling that defending a title was extremely hard although Manchester City have rather changed that perception.
The facts are this: four of the last 10 Premier League winners were making a successful defence so, based on frequency, champions Arsenal score 4pts.
Five of the last 10 winners finished either second or third in their previous campaign while just one hadn't made the top three: Chelsea (2016/17), who were 10th!
Therefore, the allocation is this:
Last season's winners = 4pts
Finished 2nd or 3rd last season = 5pts
Finished outside the top 3 last season = 1pt
Last Season's Points - 80 the gold standard
It's fair to say that the large majority of title winners have telegraphed their triumph with a strong show the previous season.
As well as measuring that in league position, we can also use points tally.
Outliers Chelsea won the title having banked a paltry tally of 50 points in the previous season but that stands out a mile.
The benchmark is usually 80 points and seven of the last 10 champions had racked up over 80 in the previous campaign.
Last season, Arsenal came off a lowish mark as they'd finished second to Liverpool with just 74 points.
The allocation is this:
Scored 80+ points last season = 7pts
Scored 74-80 points (inclusive) last season = 2pts
Scored under 74 points last season = 1pt
Second-Half of Season Points - momentum often key
Perhaps we can drill down further and split the previous season into two.
A title is won over 38 games but does performance in the second half of the campaign (Match Day 20-38) actually give us a better clue? Do those with the greatest momentum carry it over?
Arsenal could only manage 35 points in the second half of 2024/25 which perhaps put some off backing them to win last season's title.
But, generally, title winners have performed very strongly from MD 20-38 in the previous campaign with seven racking up 40 or more points.
This is good news for Manchester United, who acccumulated 41 points in the second half of last season - more than any other team.
The allocation is this:
Scored 40+ points from MD 20-38 last season = 7pts
Scored 35-39 points from MD 20-38 last season = 2pts
Scored under 35 points from MD 20-38 last season = 1pt
Goals For - does it matter?
Is it simply a fact that the best teams are the most prolific goalscorers.
It certainly seemed that way when Manchester City were ruling the roost.
While summer signings can obviously have a major impact, most title winners had already shown they could rack up the goals the previous season.
The exact stat is as follows: nine of the last 10 title winners had scored 69 or more goals the previous season.
Only three teams managed that in 2025/6: Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd.
Scored 69 or more goals last season = 9pts
Scored under 69 goals last season = 1pt
Goals Against - "defences win titles"
That popular mantra above certainly seems to apply to Arsenal, who conceded just 27 goals on the way to their title victory last season. They'd shown their mettle at the back by being the best defence (conceded 34) in the previous campaign.
Past champions haven't been as hard to break down as the Gunners but it's difficult for a team to turn into title winners if their defence had struggled the previous season.
The cut-off point here is 41. Nine of the last 10 winners had conceded 41 goals or fewer in the previous campaign.
Conceded 41 or fewer goals last season = 9pts
Conceded 42 or more goals last season = 1pt
Goals Difference - large gap required
Perhaps there's some overlap now but maybe the best measurement in the goals column is Goal Difference.
And again 41 appears to be the magic number.
History shows that eight of the last 10 title winners had shown themselves to be potential champions by registering a GD of at least +41 the season before.
Liverpool were considered slightly surprise title winners two campaigns ago but they'd recorded a Goal Difference of +45 the previous season, also scoring big points in the GF (86) and GA (41) categories.
Manchester City had a GD of +42 last season so just did enough to score 8pts in this category.
Goal Difference of +41 or better last season = 8pts
Goal Difference under +41 last season = 2pts
Manager - does change hurt?
It's all change at several big clubs this season with Enzo Maresca replacing Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, Andoni Iraola coming in for Arne Slot at Liverpool and Xabi Alonso taking over at Chelsea.
Antonio Conte won the title in his first season at charge with Chelsea while Arne Slot pulled off the same trick at Liverpool.
But they are the exceptions. Usually the title goes to a team whose manager was in the hotseat for the final game of the previous season. That's happened eight times in the last 10 years.
No change of manager = 8pts
New manager = 2pts
Latest title - recent triumph a benefit
In the last decade, both Arsenal and Liverpool were finally crowned champions again after seriously long gaps.
The Gunners ended a 22-year-wait while the Reds had suffered a 30-year drought before lifting the trophy in 2019/20.
But, again, they are exceptions as eight of the last 10 champions had won the Premier League at least once in one of the previous five seasons.
Won title in one of previous five seasons = 8pts
Won title over five seasons ago = 2pts
Europe - winners play at top table
When Leicester were shock title winners in 2015/16, one of the explanations for their incredible triumph was the lack of European football. It meant they poured all their energies into the Premier League.
Last year, no European exertions helped Manchester United earn more points in the second half of the season than anyone else.
Obviously, the top teams will almost certainly be involved in European action but have past title winners perhaps not had the extra intensity of the Champions League?
It's a very clear 'no' as nine of the last 10 winners were also involved in Champions League action that same season.
Playing in Champions League this season = 9pts
No Champions League football this season = 1pt
Odds - how accurate is the market?
Arsenal weren't title favourites last season. Neither were Liverpool in 2024/25.
So is that a trend?
Not really but it helps stop a strong one forming.
Although pre-season favourites have the edge over the last 10 years, it's only slight. Six of those market leaders went on to lift the title but four did not. Slightly surprisingly, teams ranked third or lower in the betting have a better record than second favourites.
This year's betting shows: Arsenal 6/42.50, Man City 11/43.75, Liverpool 11/26.50.
Pre-season favourite = 6pts
Second-favourite = 1pt
Third or longer in the betting = 3pts
The Top Points Scorers
The scores are in and this is how the top six in the betting rank.
75 Arsenal
55 Man City
47 Man Utd
29 Liverpool
27 Aston Villa
19 Tottenham
13 Chelsea
It's Arsenal again!
The Gunners are a near-perfect historical fit. They score the maximum points on offer in every category apart from Last Season's Finish as history very slightly goes against defending champions.
The trends say Arsenal are deserved favourites.
Manchester City are a clear second but there's quite a gap from them to the Gunners.
City lose ground for not scoring 80 points last season, only managing 37 points in the second half of that campaign and having a new manager. Also, second favourites have a poor record.
It's interesting to note that Manchester United are way clear of Liverpool in third.
United thrived under Michael Carrick last season while Liverpool scored a paltry 60 points, just 27 of those coming from MD 20-38. The Merseysiders are hit further for shipping 53 goals last term and emerging with a Goal Difference of only +10.
Despite being third favourites, the warning signs are there that Liverpool could struggle.
So let's turn this into some bets.
With Arsenal so far clear, they're the win bet at 6/42.50.
Back Arsenal to win Premier League
If it seems a long wait to land a 6/42.50 shot, a more appealing option could be to head to the Straight Forecast market and back Mikel Arteta's men to strike gold with City taking silver.
Back 1st Arsenal/2nd Man City Straight Forecast
Finally, given that Man Utd are a long way clear of Liverpool, let's try and complete the entire podium with a Straight Tricast. It's an attractive 30/131.00 for what would be a repeat of last season.
Back 1st Arsenal/2nd Man City/3rd Man Utd Straight Tricast
Just a point on Chelsea. The trends hate them and they're in the bottom scoring bucket in seven of the 10 categories.
But... this is almost exactly the profile Chelsea themselves won from in 2016/17 - 10th the previous season with just 50 points and going into the campaign with a new manager and no Europe.
For the record, 1st Chelsea/2nd Arsenal pays 22/123.00.