Opta Predicts Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Tips: Back Chris Wood to score in 38/1 Bet Builder

• Forest fancied to beat Blues in attempt to finish top five

• Cagey affair with under 2.5 goals likely

• Star men Wood and Palmer can have an impact

• Opta's Bet Builder for Sunday can backed at 38/139.00

• Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips at the bottom of the page

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

As the curtain comes down on the 2024/25 Premier League season, there is the small matter of the European qualification spots to sort out. 

At the City Ground, there's a biggie in store with it being mathematically possible for either team to finish anywhere between third and seventh when the music stops.

So let's get into it and find some of the best-value picks using Opta data and insights.

Forest can do their bit

Nottingham Forest know that, realistically, nothing less than a win will be good enough for them to have a chance of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Missing out would undoubtedly be a bitter one, having been in the top five for much of the campaign.

While the Opta supercomputer only rates Nuno Espirito Santo's side as having a 20.4% chance of Champions League qualification, a large part of that is down to permutations elsewhere. Even if Forest win on Sunday, they will need either Newcastle or Aston Villa to drop points in order to get in ahead of them. Their outright price of 7/24.50 - giving an implied probability of 22.2% - to do so is largely in line with the supercomputer prediction.

But don't let the performance of other teams influence what you are backing in this match and, at 21/103.10 to win, there is some juice in Nottingham Forest's price despite recent off-colour performances at home.

Prior to a recent run of just one point from their last three league games at the City Ground, Forest had gone 11 matches in all competitions without defeat (W8 D3). They also come into this on the back of a 2-1 victory away to West Ham last week, which kept them in the Champions League hunt until the final day.

Forest also have a decent record in matches at home to the better teams, with their only defeat against the current top six coming against Newcastle in November. Elsewhere, they have beaten Manchester City and Aston Villa as well as earning draws against top two Liverpool and Arsenal.

On the road, meanwhile, Forest also beat Liverpool and got a point away to Chelsea. Conversely, Chelsea are bottom of the top-seven mini-league, having lost six and drawn two out of their 11 such matches so far.

Chelsea themselves were able to maintain a decent level of form coming into this match, with their 1-0 victory over Manchester United last Friday their fourth win in five league games. 

But there are significant caveats that come with that, including the fact that a victory over Manchester United, especially days before their Europa League final, is no longer the statement it used to be. Ruben Amorim's side are 16th in the Premier League and, over the course of the season, have dropped to 33rd in the Opta Power Rankings - 14 places below Nottingham Forest for context.

Additionally, and more pertinently, Chelsea's form looks very different when you filter exclusively away results. On the road, Enzo Maresca's side have won just one of their last 10 league games, losing six and drawing three.

Included in that dismal run away from Stamford Bridge are defeats to fellow leading sides Newcastle, Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa. Their 2-1 loss at Anfield in October, then, means that Chelsea have failed to take a point away to any of the other teams currently in the top six.

Worse yet, in eight games away to teams currently in the top half of the Premier League, Chelsea have beaten only 10th-placed Fulham in April, drawing once and losing six times.

Sels is the man with the golden gloves

In a similar way to how Chelsea's away form means we can expect an uptick from the hosts, their stale attack means we can also expect an improvement in Nottingham Forest's defence here.

That Matz Sels still ranks joint-top for Premier League clean sheets (13) alongside David Raya, despite having gone seven games without one is testament to just how good he has been this season. One more clean sheet would put him clear of Mark Crossley (1994/95) for the most in a Premier League season for the club.

The Belgian ranks fourth in the Premier League for goals prevented (4.2) - calculated as the difference between number of goals conceded and the xGOT (expected goals on target) faced - and he climbs all the way to the top of those statistical standings when you remove own goals and penalties.

While Forest have conceded a total of 45 league goals this season, it is striking that just 15 of those have come at the City Ground - the equal-fewest home goals conceded alongside champions Liverpool.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have failed to score in four of their last six away games in the Premier League, while only Aston Villa (24), Brentford (25) and Fulham (27) in the top half have scored fewer away goals than their 28 this season. As a result, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that we could be looking at a home win to nil, with BTTS: No priced at 31/202.55.

But importantly, we're probably not going to be looking at a landslide victory here. Nottingham Forest's best chance of winning will likely be by keeping things low margin given that they have the sixth-lowest xG in the Premier League at 45.3 - they are also the biggest xG overperformers having an xG-to-goal differential of 12.7. Under 2.5 goals is available at 5/42.25.

Profligate Palmer to keep plugging away

That Cole Palmer is the clear favourite in the anytime goalscorer market (8/52.60) despite enduring a difficult second half of the season offers us an opportunity to get against him using Build Ups.

Palmer has scored just one goal in his last 15 league games, coming from the spot in stoppage time against a Liverpool side that had already been confirmed as champions.

But his dry spell has not been through the want of trying, having rattled off 51 shots in those 15 matches at an average of 3.4 per game. Having underperformed his xG by 4.5, you would be better off siding with Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest when it comes to goals.

In terms of shots, though, Palmer is 5/61.84 to have four or more and could be worth getting behind.

Wood, meanwhile, is currently on 20 league goals for the season - two short of Stan Collymore's Premier League record for Forest - and is the biggest xG overperformer in the division with a differential of 7.5. Having found the net against Leicester last time out at the City Ground, he is 7/42.75 to score again.

Morgan Gibbs-White is another name to keep an eye on, having exploded into life in recent weeks. The 25-year-old has had eight shots in Forest's last two matches, scoring twice and assisting one. He ranks second for goals among the Forest squad with seven, second for assists with eight and is 6/42.50 to score or assist on Sunday.

Going on everything we've said above, the following bet builder is available at 38/139.00 to on the sportsbook:

Now read more Football tips and previews here.