Newcastle v Leeds Tips: Back another pair for Magpies

Miguel Almiron
Miguel Almiron: Played well against Manchester United last weekend
  • Newcastle United vs Leeds United
  • Fri 17 Sep, 20:00

Two leaky defences will be on show when Newcastle host Leeds in the Premier League on Friday and Andy Schooler is expecting goals and shots...

"With Leeds having already given up more shots than any other side in the top flight – opponents are averaging just under 19 per game against them – Newcastle could offer some value here."

Back Newcastle to score 2+ goals @ 2.3811/8

Two winless sides go head-to-head in Friday Night Football this week but it's doubtful this game will be a tight affair.

Leeds may have picked up just two points so far but their manager Marcelo Bielsa won't change his side's approach too much - history suggests he'll stick to his footballing principles and will go down playing the same way rather than change his philosophy.

Hosts better in attack

His opposite number, Newcastle's Steve Bruce, is rather more pragmatic but while he's once again come under fire following an even worse start to the campaign - one point from four games - there have been some promising signs in attack, even if the defence has been pretty grim.

They've conceded 12 times already - Leeds have let in only one less - including four at Manchester United last weekend.

Still, they did cause their hosts a few problems, the pace and drive of Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron helping them get back into the game, even if ultimately they were 4-1 losers.

They should get chances here given Leeds' own defensive issues.

Not only were the Yorkshire side overrun by Liverpool last week, they are facing the prospect of coming into this match with a patched up defence.

Defensive concerns for Leeds

Pascal Struijk is suspended following his red card against Liverpool, a match which also saw Spanish international Diego Llorente limp off. Robin Koch was already missing so Bielsa is facing a real shortage at centre-back. Maybe Luke Ayling will have to move inside from right-back, as he's done before.

Junior Firpo was given a torrid time last week and in normal circumstances he may well have got the hook for this game. However, a lack of options mean it's likely he'll keep his place at left-back in what looks set to be a makeshift back-line.

With Leeds having already given up more shots than any other side in the top flight - opponents are averaging just under 19 per game against them - Newcastle could offer some value here.

Admittedly they still remain without their biggest goal threat, Callum Wilson, but Saint-Maximin has started the campaign well and Newcastle do look capable of scoring from elsewhere.

Visitors look too short

Even if they did beat Newcastle twice last season, I can't be having Leeds at 2.3611/8 to win the game given how easy teams have found it to score against them - they are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Newcastle United

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Leeds United

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Friday 17 September, 20:00

Full stats

Newcastle look better value at 3.1511/5, although it's hard to be too confident about their chances given the problems they've had at the back themselves. Indeed, whoever scores first will offer a lay opportunity in-play.

The Magpies have managed to score two goals in each of their home games so far, when they have tried to play largely on the front foot.

They twice led West Ham only to lose 4-2, while last time at St James's Park Southampton scored deep into injury time to earn a 2-2 draw.

Magpies can double up - again

And that's my approach here - Newcastle to score two or more at 2.3811/8, a bet which clearly allows Leeds to win or draw the game, which I'd expect to be high-scoring.

Leeds have conceded 2+ in three of their four games and their problems appear to have deepened this week.

Over 2.5 goals is at 1.738/11 which looks about right, and the same can be said about both teams to score at 1.68/13. Both bets have landed three out of four times this season for each team.

Shots markets worth a try

The individual shots markets may also be worth a visit given that Leeds stat about shots conceded, while Newcastle are hardly far behind on that score - they have conceded more than 15 per game so far, well above the average.

[matchPredictions url=https://betting.betfair.com/predictions/newcastle-united-vs-leeds-united-prediction-and-stats.html]

I'll take one from each side, starting with Federico Fernandez for the hosts.

The centre-back has managed a shot in two of his three games so far and looks likely to return to the starting XI for this one.

Leeds have been particularly poor defending set-pieces and since their return to the top flight, no side has let in more goals from corners.

Fernandez provides an aerial threat and could take advantage of a situation which could potentially get worse given the injury problems Leeds have at the back.

1280 Federico Fernandez.jpg

5/1 about him having 2+ shots therefore looks big.

As for a shots bet on the visiting side, Raphinha looks worth chancing at 13/5 to have 4+ shots.

The Brazilian has been in fine form at the start of the season and caused Newcastle all sorts of problems last term when he had seven shots against them at Elland Road.

This season he's already hit the 4+ mark in two of his four games (against Everton and Burnley) and should get opportunities against a leaky home defence.

Opta fact

Leeds have faced 28 shots on target in the Premier League this season (more than any other side), including nine against Liverpool last time out. Their average of seven shots on target faced per game is the highest on record in a single Premier League campaign (since 2003/04).

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