Newcastle v Fulham: Improving visitors worth backing at St James' Park

Newcastle v Fulham
Saturday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Newcastle coping through Covid problems

Newcastle United are in a relatively comfortable position in the Premier League after winning five of their first 12 matches. Steve Bruce is not very popular with the club's supporters, partly due to their conservative style of play, but it is hard to dispute his solid record since taking charge last year. Managing on a tight budget, Bruce guided the Magpies to 13th place last season and are on course for a similar campaign.

Their plans have not been helped by a recent Covid 19 outbreak at the club. This forced the game against Aston Villa to be postponed and several players have only just recovered from the virus. Callum Wilson has been an excellent signing with the striker netting seven goals this season while Dwight Gayle scored the winner, on his first appearance of the season after injury, in the 2-1 victory at home to West Brom last weekend. Newcastle suffered a 5-2 defeat at Leeds on Wednesday, in a game where the dominant hosts had 25 shots.

Fulham improving after slow start

Fulham endured a difficult start to the season following promotion from the Championship, with Scott Parker's side losing their first four matches.

Quickly written off as relegation certainties, Fulham have significantly improved over the last six weeks to suggest they do have a realistic shot at avoiding the drop.

Beating West Brom last month was followed by an excellent victory at Leicester.

There is no doubt Fulham have become harder to play against and started to offer more in the final third, with Ademola Lookman and Bobby Decordova-Reid providing a goal threat. Fulham were extremely impressive last weekend, taking the lead against champions Liverpool, in their 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage. The Cottagers were also held on Wednesday night after a goalless draw at home to Brighton.

Betting suggests tight contest

Newcastle are marginal favourites with the hosts drifting to 2.77/4 after their midweek loss. Bruce lambasted his side's defending at Leeds and Newcastle may still be suffering a hangover from their recent coronavirus outbreak. It is very difficult to know what to expect from this side with three wins and three defeats at home underlining their inconsistency.

Fulham are shortening for this match and it is easy to see why given their recent upturn in form. The visitors are 2.962/1 for the contest and there is very little in the betting to separate the teams. Fulham have undoubtedly improved with just one defeat in their last four matches which includes games against Leicester, Man City and Liverpool.

The draw is the biggest price available at 3.3512/5 although only two of Newcastle's 12 games have ended level. Fulham have been held in their last two matches but only drawn one other match this season.

This is an extremely tight contest but Fulham bring momentum into the match and can claim a positive result.

The visitors appeal in the draw no bet market at 2.0811/10.

Goals likely with leaky defences

Newcastle have conceded in every home league match this season and Fulham will fancy their chances of extending this run. Parker's side will have seen the defensive mistakes made by Newcastle at Leeds and will expect to create openings on Saturday night. That said, the Magpies have scored six goals in their last three games so should be able to find the net against a team that have conceded 22 goals.

Betfair's promotion offers a free £10 bet when you stake this amount on a Premier League Same Game Multi. There are plenty of options to get stuck into in this match and one option involves backing both teams to score. Combining this with Fulham to avoid defeat in the double chance market boosts the odds to 2.51.

Opta Stat

Newcastle are without a clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League home games, since beating Sheffield United 3-0 back in June. It is 15/8 for the Magpies to avoid conceding this weekend.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster