Paul Higham fancies more goals at St James' Park as Newcastle host Everton thanks to a pair of dodgy defences, and has a 3/14.00 fouls Bet Builder to consider...
Dodgy defences mean get on goals again
Newcastle v Everton
Tuesday 2 April, 19:30 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 2
Both of these sides tasted some late drama on Saturday, but in very different ways as Newcastle got out of jail against West Ham while Everton shot themselves in the foot at Bournemouth.
The Magpies kept their European hopes alive with that win, which will have them buzzing at St James' Park on Tuesday but did kind of paper over the cracks over another abject defensive display.
Eddie Howe's side showed character, but a couple of dodgy penalties and a late wonder strike from Harvey Barnes meant West Ham can rightly feel a bit robbed.
Newcastle are 1/12.00 for a home win against an Everton side without a win in 12 - with in fact their last victory being a 3-0 hammering of the Magpies at Goodison back in December.
The 13/53.60 Everton away win seems highly unlikely then, with that late own goal at Bournemouth showing Sean Dyche's side find yet another way to throw points away as they hurtle down towards the relegation zone.
I'm still not convinced by Newcastle, and Anthony Gordon's stupid red card seeing him miss facing his old club is a huge blow as their best player of late, but Everton arrive with neither a hint of form or confidence so look ideal opponents.
What they both do well is concede goals, making both teams to score look inevitable at 8/151.53.
Newcastle have let in 51 and incredibly conceded 3+ goals in 10 games this season, while Everton have allowed 2+ goals in five of their last seven, so even over 3.5 goals at 6/42.50 looks to be on the table.
Everton are near the bottom of those standings but Newcastle have had the most over 3.5 goal outings in the division including in 10 of their last 11, and with Everton's recent defensive lapses I think the goal fests will keep on coming.
Back Barnes & fouls Bet Builder
Alexander Isak is carrying the load for Newcastle and is 13/102.30 to score anytime after slotting two pens against West Ham, but Barnes will be all the rage at 9/43.25 to score again after his two-goal salvo on Saturday.
Barnes could make just a fourth start of the season with Gordon missing from that left side, and he's a good bet for me at 2/13.00 for 2+ shots on target - which is just above his average per 90 minutes this season.
He had four on target from four attempts in that crazy 24-minute cameo and averages a shot on target about every 49 minutes in his severel injury-hit season. So given a start 2+ shots on target will be no problem.
And how about a fun fouls treble? This game is surely made for fouls with a desperate Everton and two foul-happy midfielders facing Bruo Guimaraes - who has won the most fouls in the league with 82.
His 3.1 fouls won per 90 ranks third so we'll back him to win 3+ fouls again, which he's done in 17 games this season, at 10/111.91.
Everton have given away the third-most fouls in the league and both Idrissa Gueye and Abdoulaye Doucoure sit int he top 10 for conceding fouls with an average of two per game.
So with the pair being priced up at 4/61.67 and 4/71.57 to stick to their average of 2+ fouls each we'll add that for a nice little 3/14.00 Bet Builder treble.
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