English Premier League

Newcastle v Bournemouth: Back Cherries to land bet that's lost once all season

Odds Compiler Mark Stinchcombe
Stinch is back to preview Newcastle v Bournemouth in the Premier League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Newcastle v Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday lunchtime...


Betfair's Saturday Football Superboost!

Aleksandar Isak and Antony Gordon for Newcastle form our Saturday Superboost with both players in red hot form.

We just need both men to combine for 3 or more shots on target vs Bournemouth which was priced at 8/111.73 but the selection has been boosted to 6/42.50!

This bet has landed in six of the last eight Premier League games.


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Newcastle v Bournemouth
Saturday January 18, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports

Isak powering Newcastle's ascent

Newcastle United come into this in great form having won their last six Premier League matches, including being ahead at half-time in all six. Going further back they've scored two or more goals in their last eight league games which is encapsulated by the performances of their striker Alexander Isak. They've been expertly led by the Swede with 12 goals in his last nine games, scoring in eight Premier League games in a row, to take him to third in the top scorer charts and three goals behind leader Mohamed Salah.

However, having said all that, just four points separate Newcastle and Bournemouth in this top half clash on Saturday lunchtime at St James' Park yet Newcastle odds are just 1.664/6 to win. Those odds imply Newcastle have a 60% of winning yet they have won 11 of 21 Premier League games - just 52% in-comparison. Throw in the fact that Bournemouth have only lost five of 21 league matches this season (24%) and backing Andoni Iraola's side to avoid defeat makes perfect sense at the prices.

Bournemouth not taking their chances but still performing

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games and actually rank third in expected points with 38.12 - higher than Newcastle's 33.50. Their excellent season has been built on their ability to get high number of shots away with them hitting the joint third most per-game with 16.2.

They have actually underperformed with their actual points totalling 34 - four fewer than their expected - which would have them third in the league. This underperformance comes from their failure to take the high quality chances they are creating. They have created the fourth most expected goals with 43.57 but have only scored 32 goals - the second biggest underachievement in the league. The main villains here come in the form of Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson and Dango Ouattara who have 15 goals between them from 26.42 expected goals. Evanilson being out injured may actually work in their favour here with Bournemouth putting five past West Brom in the FA Cup and two past Chelsea in midweek without him.

Back visitors to avoid defeat by two or more

This should be more competitive than the odds suggest and backing Bournemouth +1.0 on the Asian Handicap means Newcastle need to win by two or more goals for the bet to lose. This bet would have avoided defeat in 20 of Bournemouth 21 matches this season (95%) and they come into this match with an extra day of rest ahead of an early kick-off. I backed the same bet when Bournemouth visited Chelsea on Tuesday night and only a 95th minute Reece James free-kick denied the Cherries taking home all three points let alone avoiding defeat.


Now read the rest of Mark Stinchcombe's Saturday Premier League best bets!


Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 10.0pts
Returned: 8.53pts
P/L: -1.47pts


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