Newcastle United v West Ham United: Back defences to be breached in lively clash

• Both teams leaking goals

• Areola a busy man in Hammers goal

• Soucek foul part of 2.427/5 Bet Builder

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Newcastle United v West Ham United
Saturday 30 March, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports 2

Final weeks could define Howe's Magpies tenure

It appears that Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe is getting the benefit of the doubt from the club's board, despite a season that has lost momentum. Howe certainly deserves leniency after delivering Champions League football ahead of schedule, and he can point to a crippling injury list as mitigation.

However, there is no doubt that a promising campaign is in danger of ending with no clear progress. Newcastle finished bottom of their Champions League group, despite securing a famous home win against PSG at a raucous St. James's Park. They went out of the League Cup at Chelsea and lost in the FA Cup at Manchester City, with the latter defeat courtesy of a somewhat timid display.

While Newcastle have been scoring plenty of goals (they have rattled in 59 in the Premier League alone), the defensive solidity that underpinned last season's top-four finish has vanished. The north-east giants have leaked 48 goals, the second-worst record in the top 12, and they have managed just three clean sheets in their last 17 top-flight matches.

Newcastle aren't completely out of the European qualification picture. They are seven points off the top six, and a win over seventh-placed West Ham would close the gap between the clubs to a single point.

The loss of centre-back Sven Botman to a season-ending injury is a further blow to an already bruised and battered squad. Kieran Trippier, Joelinton, Harvey Barnes, Lewis Miley, Callum Wilson and goalkeeper Nick Pope are all carrying injuries, while full-back Tino Livramento is a doubt.

Hammers are a puzzle, but are still having a strong season

West Ham's recent 1-1 draw with Aston Villa summed up the confusing dynamic at the London Stadium.

On one hand, the Hammers more than matched a team that is currently in the top four, and they came very close to beating them. On the other, they had long spells in that game when they were happy to concede possession and sit back, much to the annoyance of a fanbase that desperately wants manager David Moyes to be more proactive and attack-minded.

There's no doubt that West Ham are in with a shot of having a superb end to the season. They are in the top seven, and they have yet again reached a European quarter-final.

The Hammers will face Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen, who are ten points clear at the top in Germany and haven't lost a single game in any competition. Although it will be a daunting task, I actually think that West Ham can give Xabi Alonso's side a run for their money, and that tie will be closer than people think.

West Ham have claimed eight points from their last four matches, and they have racked up six away wins in the league this term, including victories at Arsenal, Spurs and Brighton. Our friends at Opta tell us that Moyes' men shouldn't really fear a trip to Tyneside, as they have lost on just one of their last five Premier League visits.

Mexican midfielder Edson Alvarez will be missing for West Ham after picking up ten yellow cards this term, so Kalvin Phillips or James Ward-Prowse may deputise. Mohammed Kudus hopes to shake off a minor knock.

Areola saves the key to Bet Builder

I'm sorely tempted to lay Newcastle at 1.910/11, as West Ham are in good form, and there isn't much to choose between the teams. However, instead I've put together a Bet Builder at 2.427/5.

The first leg is backing Both Teams To Score. These are the two worst defences in the top 12, with 98 goals conceded between them. A BTTS wager has landed in nine of Newcastle's last ten league matches, and six of West Ham's last ten. West Ham have managed just one clean sheet in their last 18 away games in the league.

I'll also back the West Ham keeper (almost certainly Alphonse Areola) to make three or more saves. If you look at Areola's last 13 league games, he has had to make three or more saves in 12 of them.

The final part is West Ham midfielder Tomas Soucek to commit a foul. The Czech midfielder committed two in the reverse fixture, and has picked up at least one foul in 17 of his 28 league games this term. Newcastle are third in the Premier League when it comes to most fouls drawn, with central midfielder Bruno Guimaraes the most fouled player in the whole division. According to fbRef.com, the Brazilian international has been fouled 82 times.

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