Manchester United v Everton: Back Branthwaite in 64/1 Bet Builder

• Both sides are hard to trust so Draw at 4.03/1 appeals

• Everton are a big threat from set pieces

• Jarrad Branthwaite has two in his last five games

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Manchester United v Everton
Saturday March 09, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports 1

United still way off the pace

The pattern for Manchester United this season is to lurch into crisis, come out of it to suggest a corner is being turned and then run into trouble once more.

And they're currently in the final phase of that sequence again after back-to-back Premier League defeats: a 2-1 home loss to Fulham and a more understandable 3-1 derby defeat to Manchester City in which the shot count was City 27-3 United.

United have now lost 11 of their 27 Premier League games this season which somehow looks even worse when you tap it into a calculator and get 40%.

Drill down and there are even more horrors to be found: Erik ten Hag's men have faced at least 20 shots in four of their last five PL games and only Sheffield United and West Ham have had more shots hit towards their goal in the top flight this season.

Their current position of sixth place could be spun into a positive if the teams above them were in close proximity but United are six behind Tottenham in fifth and 11 back from fourth-placed Aston Villa.

Toffees winless in 10 games

Everton will feel relieved to have had their 10-point deduction reduced to six as the wins have dried up since they had a flurry of victories in response to the original penalty.

Losing in injury-time to West Ham last weekend represented a 10th Premier League match without a victory, the Toffees drawing half of those.

But getting them in singles won't pull a team away from relegation and Everton go into the weekend just five points above third-bottom Luton and the spectre of another deduction still hangs over the Goodison men.

Sean Dyche has been there and done it numerous times when his teams are placed in peril so there's no sign of panic yet and five away wins in the Premier League this season is the same number as fifth-placed Tottenham.

Draw appeals with United struggling for goals

If punters have their heads turned by head-to-head form, it's quite an eye-popping stat that Everton have managed just a single win in their last 30 Premier League games at Old Trafford.

It's a dreadful record but does such history mean anything? Is it better just to focus on the here and now and note that United have lost five at home in the top-flight this season (only the bottom seven have suffered more)?

As for the match market betting, Man Utd are 1.9310/11 on the exchange, surely the biggest price they've been in this fixture in memory, with Everton 4.3100/30 and The Draw 4.03/1.

In the game of 'who do you trust?' the answer has to be no-one when it comes to winning right now. But the Draw certainly has appeal.

United's inability to find goals - their 37 from 27 games is the fewest of any top-half team - means they struggle to pull clear of teams, suggesting Everton can stay in the game and pinch something.

Branthwaite offers Bet Builder value

Until Rasmus Hojlund returns, goals will remain a problem for United and, at the time of writing, it's unclear if the Dane, a 7/52.40 chance to score anytime, is fit again.

Hojlund would be the No.1 contender for a scorer/Bet Builder punt but, if not available, perhaps Alejandro Garnacho is feted to cause Everton more headaches again after his sublime overhead kick set United on the way to a 3-0 win in this fixture at Goodison. The youngster is 7/18.00 to score first again.

If history is the main driver, Bruno Fernandes certainly has that against Everton having scored four times and set up three more in his eight Premier League games against the Toffees. Fernandes has been boosted to 13/102.30 to score or assist although note that he hasn't netted in the PL for United since early November.

In truth, I'm rather more drawn to the Everton angle and the one I like is Jarrad Branthwaite to score anytime at 16/117.00.

This will hardly come as a surprise for a Sean Dyche team but Everton have scored 15 goals from set-pieces this season, the second most in the division. Only Arsenal with 18 have more and even then it's interesting to note that Everton's set-piece XG is 14.60 to Arsenal's 10.83.

In other words, the visitors are creating a raft of good chances from dead-ball situations and, in recent weeks, Branthwaite has been cashing in, finding the net against Tottenham and Brighton.

With two goals in in his last five Premier League starts, the 21-year-old central defender is making his mighty frame felt when coming up from the back and I'll play him at 16/117.00 to score anytime.

Both those goals came in draws so it's hard to ignore that too. Branthwaite to score in a stalemate pays a mighty 64/165.00.

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