Manchester City v Newcastle Tips: Backing City at 5/2 at home

• City rarely 1.73 for a home win

• Hosts conceded in 8 of 9 home games v top-half sides

• Back City/BTTS at 3.55

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Manchester City v Newcastle
Saturday 19 August, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

When asked to preview this game, my initial reaction was this was a potential banana skin for the hosts (sorry for the early cliché).

Magpies' chance to soar at 5.24/1?

City come in off a trip to Greece on Wednesday night and while that proved a worthwhile journey - the Super Cup added to the ever-growing trophy cabinet - it's far from ideal from a Premier League point of view.

At the same time, Newcastle had their feet up, thinking about how they could build on the ideal start to their campaign - a 5-1 thrashing of Aston Villa.

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While helped by Villa's suicidal high defensive line, it was hard not to be impressed by their display which featured starring roles from Alexander Isak and new signing Sandro Tonali.

With City's star of stars Kevin de Bruyne also now ruled out for several months, circumstances have worked in Newcastle's favour and they certainly have the potential to trouble the champions.

However, the market is clued up.

City too tempting at 1.738/11

Frankly, I expected Newcastle to be bigger than 5.24/1 to win on the Exchange.

This is a big step up from a Villa side, who really were disappointing on the opening weekend, and City will put out a formidable team, whoever Pep Guardiola opts to start with here.

The Spanish boss will be well aware of the importance of this game in terms of putting down a potential title rival and for all his grumblings about the Saturday scheduling of this match, he'll pick his team knowing that his side's next match, at Sheffield United, isn't for another eight days.

You don't get 1.738/11 about a City win at home too often these days and it's just too tempting not to take note of.

However, while that price in itself of interest, a bigger one catches the eye the most.

BTTS angle looks good at 3.613/5

City are clearly full of goals but Newcastle also looked to have a vibrant attack in last week's game and with the champions having offered up plenty of good chances to both Burnley and Sevilla in the past week, I like the look of both teams to score.

Interestingly, that bet landed in eight of nine City home games against the top-half sides last season, seven of which were won.

City to win and both teams to score here is 3.613/5 on the Exchange and that looks a good-value way of siding with the hosts.

For all Newcastle's potential, they will still have to get over the mental hurdle of beating the world's best team, who have defeated them seven times in their last eight meetings (the odd-one-out being a draw).

Over 2.5 goals is odds-on at 1.794/5 which is another nod to this bet's value.

Bet Builder options

Moving onto the props markets, especially for those looking to put Bet Builders together, a few options spring to mind.

Rodri was again firing off shots left, right and centre last week, managing four at Burnley and three against Sevilla, yet still he's being priced up with too much weight being given to his 'defensive midfielder' tag.

He's 5/61.84 for 2+ shots here which looks good.

For Newcastle, Fabian Schar was the top defender in the league for shots last season, averaging 1.57 per 90 minutes, although he's only 3/101.30 for 1+ shot in this match which isn't so mouthwatering.

Finally, Kieran Trippier could offer some value in the player-card market.

Only Wilfried Zaha was fouled more often than Jack Grealish in the Premier League last season and, assuming he starts, England team-mate Trippier will be his direct opponent here.

Referee Robert Jones was one of the stricter officials last season, averaging 4.12 cards per game, while he opened the new campaign by showing five in Brentford v Spurs last weekend.

Tripper, booked seven times in all competitions last season, including once against City, is 11/43.75 for a card.

Opta fact

Newcastle have never won in 18 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium (D2 L16), with their last away league win against Man City coming at Maine Road in September 2000. It's the most any team has played at a specific venue without ever winning in Premier League history.

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