Manchester City v Brentford: City to make an early mark at The Etihad

• Man City have won their last 11 home games
• Brentford are winless on the road this term
• Bees have kept 3/26 away clean sheets since promotion
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Man City overcome Chelsea in midweek

Manchester City maintained their record of never losing in the third round of the Carabao Cup under Pep Guardiola by overcoming Chelsea 2-0 at The Etihad on Wednesday night. Goals from Riyad Mahrez and Julian Alvarez deservedly sealed the Citizens progression, although both sides had chances in an open and even first half to the game.

Kalvin Phillips made his return from injury to play the final 40 minutes in the City midfield, whilst Guardiola opted to rest and rotate the majority of his squad with Saturday's showdown against Brentford in-mind. Ederson, Erling Haaland, Kevin de Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden and John Stones were all unused substitutes and will likely return here.

Post-match, Guardiola hailed the contributions of Jack Grealish and goalkeeper Stefan Ortega, before investing focus on the quick turnaround. Joao Cancelo returns from suspension for Man City with Kyle Walker the only confirmed absentee in the defending champions' ranks this weekend.

Brentford suffer shock cup loss

Brentford suffered a shock elimination from the Carabao Cup at the fourth round stage in midweek as the Bees were beaten on penalties by League Two outfit Gillingham. Head coach Thomas Frank said his side were in the competition to win it and he set up his team accordingly, welcoming Ivan Toney back from suspension in a strong line-up at home.

But after taking an early lead through Toney, and dominating the vast majority of possession, the West Londoners largely underwhelmed in the second-half and the complacent hosts were stunned when, from a rare attack, Gillingham grabbed an equaliser with 15 minutes to play, holding on thereafter to take the game to spot-kicks.

The match came hot on the heels of Saturday's thrilling 2-2 with Nottingham Forest, where Frank praised his squad for "stepping up" in the absence of several key players - including Kristoffer Ajer, who has suffered a serious knee injury. He added, "We are a little bit down to the bare bones without Pontus (Jansson), Christian Norgaard, Aaron Hickey and Ajer".

Mathias Jensen is fit and available again, whilst Norgaard is also back in contention but Thomas Strakosha, Charlie Goode and Shandon Baptise all remain sidelined alongside Jansson and Hickey.

Citizens difficult to dismiss

Manchester City did the double over Brentford last season in the Premier League, but the Citizens weren't able to put the Bees to the sword in either encounter. The defending champions triumphed 2-0 at The Etihad before pinching a 1-0 success in the reverse contest. Meanwhile, City's only defeat in five home fixtures with the Bees came way back on Christmas Day in 1937.

Manchester City 1.162/13 have won each of their last 11 Premier League fixtures at The Etihad - it's the Citizens' longest such spell since a run of 14 in the 2017/18 campaign. Pep Guardiola's group have scored at least twice in each of their past 15 league dates as hosts and have W20-D2-L1 when welcoming bottom-half sides since the start of 2020/21.

Brentford 23.0022/1 have been one of the Premier League's draw specialists this season (W3-D7-L4), though the Bees have produced their best work in the capital. Thomas Frank's team are one of four top-tier sides yet to taste victory on their travels (W0-D4-L3), with only three sides picking up fewer away points. Brentford have W3-D1-L9 at top-half teams since promotion.

Haaland can fire City to comfortbly sucess

Man City have covered the -1 handicap in 17 of the aforementioned 23 match-ups with bottom-half dwellers since 2020/21 and the Citizens have struck three times or more in 13 of those fixtures (averaging 3.17 goals per-game). Impressively, City have also been ahead at half-time on 18 occasions and notched multiple first-half strikes in 10 such showdowns.

Brentford have managed only three clean sheets in 26 games as guests since returning to the top-flight, shipping multiple goals in 17/26 (65%). The Bees have allowed an average of 2.00 goals per-game during those road trips and have already leaked at least twice in five of their seven away days this term, a concerning return ahead of a daunting trip to The Etihad.

With Erling Haaland available again, plus the overwhelming numbers in our favour from above, I'm happy to have a crack at the 2.79179/100 available via the Bet Builder on Man City -1, Over 1.5 First-Half Goals and Erling Haaland to score Anytime. It's a combination that's paid out in six of City's seven home EPL outings when the Norwegian has been involved.

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