English Premier League Tips

Man City v Liverpool Early Odds Look: Champions backed at 9/5 to dent rivals' title bid

Pep Guardiola, Man City boss
A top four finish is essential for Pep and City this season

Ste Tudor takes an early look at one of the fixtures of the season, that takes place at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday and sees both sides in wobbly form...


Without a doubt, Liverpool and Manchester City's duopoly at the summit of English football has produced the rivalry of our age. It has also conjured up some unforgettable clashes between them, full of drama, remarkable goals and controversy.

The big question though, as these two fractious foes prepare to resume hostilities again this weekend, is to what extent will the current disparity between the teams influence the outcome at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday?

It certainly played a big part when they met at Anfield back in December.

Then - as now - Liverpool were comfortably top of the pile and went into the game with Mo Salah scoring or assisting on a weekly basis. City for their part were winless in six, their disintegration no longer a novelty but a national talking point.

It felt inevitable that the Reds would prevail that afternoon and frankly a pummeling wasn't out of the question. The 2-0 scoreline ultimately flattered the visitors.

This time out feels very different. There are two main reasons for this.

A blip, not a dip

There is no suggestion of any implosion, and the Reds remain unbeaten in the league since mid-September, but Arne Slot's men are no longer finding this title winning business such a lark.

It began with an ill-judged line-up to face Plymouth in the cup that resulted in an upset and was followed by a psychologically damaging late, late concession to Everton in the derby.

Last night, Liverpool were wasteful of chances up front at Villa Park and looked suspect at the back as another 2-2 draw played out.

With further points dropped, and the Reds suddenly looking mortal, their title odds have drifted out a smidgeon to 3/101.30. Expect that to be closer to evens if Arsenal beat the Hammers on Saturday and Liverpool come unstuck against their arch nemesis.

City of course also had a midweek to forget, outclassed in Madrid, but positives can be spun in this regard.

Given their sustained struggles this term, perhaps it will be viewed internally as a blessing that they can now focus entirely on securing a top four spot, their injury-hit squad no longer stretched by commitments in a competition they were never going to realistically win this season.

City are presently priced at 4/111.36 to finish top four.

Home advantage

Home advantage has always been a huge factor in this rivalry.

City have so often found themselves blown away on Merseyside, even when they were at their most imperious. Draws have been celebrated as galvanizing successes. The only time they have won at Anfield in the last two decades was in 2021 when there was no crowd to rattle them out of their rhythm.

It's a similar tale at the Etihad, Liverpool last triumphing there in the league back in 2015.

The eight contests since have produced four home victories and four draws. What's more, those wins have largely been comprehensive, with an aggregate scoreline of 15-2.

The Blues are 4/51.80 to score over 1.5 goals on Sunday and that tempts considering that Liverpool's backline is starting to leak and creak while City have fired four goals per 90 at home in 2025.

The outcome though is all that matters, with a title bid and top four both on the line, and at the current prices the home victory is the most appealing option.


Now read Dave Tindall's Leicester v Brentford preview here 

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Stephen Tudor avatar

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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