Man City v Burnley: Guardiola's hosts to brush aside struggling opponents

Pep Guardiola
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City drew at Liverpool before the international break
  • Manchester City vs Burnley
  • Sat 16 Oct, 16:00

Man City host Burnley this weekend and Simon Mail expects the champions to cruise to victory over winless Burnley...

"All four of Man City's wins have been achieved without conceding and this looks the obvious route to profit this weekend."

City return to action after tough run

Man City resume their Premier League title defence, following the international break, at home to Burnley this weekend with Pep Guardiola's side expected to continue their stranglehold over the Clarets. City are handily placed, just two points off the top, in third after four wins from their first seven league games.

This has included a series of difficult fixtures and the champions impressed in their last game as they drew 2-2 at leaders Liverpool. Goals from Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne earned a point at Anfield and Man City also recently won at title rivals Chelsea.

An opening weekend defeat at Tottenham is their only blemish and City looked primed to challenge for back-to-back titles after coming through two of their toughest trips.

Burnley still searching for win

Burnley are still looking for their first league win of the season and Sean Dyche's side would not have chosen a trip to the champions as their first game back after the international break. Not even their most optimistic supporter is likely to give them much of a chance this weekend as they attempt to climb out of the relegation zone.

Third bottom Burnley have only taken three points from their first seven matches. The Clarets claimed a creditable 2-2 draw at Leicester last month but were left frustrated after being held to a 0-0 draw at home to bottom side Norwich in their most recent game. Dyche has made a habit out of keeping Burnley out of trouble on limited resources in recent years, but the straight-talking manager may face his toughest challenge this season to keep them up.

dychey.jpg

Hosts unbackable as overwhelming favourites

Man City are overwhelming favourites for this match and the hosts are virtually unbackable at odds of just 1.141/7. The last eight matches against Burnley have all ended in a Man City win and it would be a huge shock if the champions failed to extend that record.

Burnley have yet to win this season so it is no surprise the visitors are as big as 28.027/1 to stun Guardiola's side. There is still no temptation to side with the Clarets at this price because they do not appear to have the ability to win at the Etihad. A wretched recent record is also off putting and Dyche will surely have to wait to get off the mark this season.

The draw is trading at 11.010/1 but again does not appeal. Burnley are likely to struggle to keep out Man City's wealth of attacking options and it is hard to make a case for a stalemate. The hosts will be one of the shortest-priced teams of the season this weekend but for good reason. Siding with Man City is the obvious advice but alternative markets are needed to find a more palatable price.

City should win with something to spare

Man City have the joint best defensive record in the league, conceding just three goals in seven games. All four of their wins have been achieved without conceding and this looks the obvious route to profit this weekend. The hosts are unlikely to offer up many opportunities for Burnley and a win to nil stands out at 8/11.

A more ambitious bet on the champions is to back them to thrash their opponents.

Man City's last four home games against Burnley have all finished 5-0.

Both of their league victories at the Etihad this season, against Arsenal and Norwich, have also resulted in 5-0 drubbings so this is a team adept at obliterating sides. It is worth taking a chance on another one-sided win at generous odds of 14/1.

Opta Stat

Burnley have lost each of their last eight meetings with Man City in all competitions by an aggregate score of 30-1.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

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P/L 2021-22

Staked: 8.0pts
Return: 14.68pts
P/L: 6.68pts

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