Luton v Man City: Rodri to shine as normal service resumes

• City have dominated newly-promoted sides

• Rodri to use head and prove his worth again

• Back selections at 9/43.25 and 19/201.95

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Luton v Manchester City
Sunday 10 December, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Since his appointment as Barcelona manager back in 2008, Pep Guardiola has never gone five league games without a win.

That is the fate which awaits if City fail to beat Luton on Sunday, although it's a big 'if', according to prices.

City are 1.171/6 to bounce back from a run which has seen them beaten by Aston Villa, draw with Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea, and have the word crisis written next to their name for the first time in a while.

Of course, that description sums up the state of modern football. In reality, failing to beat three members of the top five and the biggest-spending club in recent history is far from a disaster, although it has left them six points off the pace of leaders Arsenal.

City ready to bounce back

This is not a crisis but Guardiola will certainly be keen to ensure that gap does not widen any further and some stern words will likely have been said following Wednesday's 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa which saw them outplayed and a paltry two shots produced.

Expect a reaction.

While recent opponents have been of high quality, this is a Luton side in the relegation zone, one which has the worst expected goals against (xGA) total in the league. They shipped 30 goals so far but it 'should' be 38, according to the quality of the chances they've conceded.

They are 21.020/1 to win this game for a reason.

To be fair, some of those who saw Tuesday's effort against Arsenal may be tempted to back the hosts at such odds - or lay City on the Exchange.

Luton only lost 4-3 to an injury-time goal and that after having led 3-2.

Still, scoring three goals against the leaders and still losing may well have left some scars, while it would be remiss not to point out that the Hatters only had six shots - the fifth time in six games they've failed to hit double figures.

Side with Rodri in shots market

Breaking that run will be difficult here, especially with the world-class Rodri back in the City side after a ban.

The Spaniard is crucial to making this team tick, as evidenced by the fact City have lost all four games he's missed through suspension this season.

A label of 'defensive midfielder' really doesn't do Rodri justice and this game could well see him showing off his full array of talent.

Rodri often plays the defensive role in disciplined fashion against the 'bigger' teams but against those who offer less threat and often see little of the ball, he is usually let off the leash by Guardiola.

That's reflected, to some extent, by his shots figures and it's noteworthy that in away games against the two other newly-promoted clubs, he's managed five against Sheffield United and four at Burnley.

He's a tempting 5/23.50 for 4+ shots in this one but I'm going to play another angle, namely 1+ headed shot on target.

Rodri has become a big set-piece threat for City over the past year or so and he's shown his aerial ability on several occasions this season.

But what really makes this a good bet in this game is Luton's frailty in such situations.

They've conceded more shots from set-plays than any other Premier League side, while only Nottingham Forest have conceded more goals in these scenarios.

If City dominate possession as expected - they sit second to Brighton in the possession table with Luton bottom - then they should win plenty of corners.

Against a defence shorn of City loanee Issa Kabore and possibly Tom Lockyer, Rodri is more than capable of getting his head on one of them and, hopefully, getting an effort on target.

Bet Builder can juice-up City price

There's also a short-priced Bet Builder which makes appeal, at least to those who expect City to put recent struggles to one side.

Guardiola's men have led at both half time and full time in 11 of their last 14 games against newly-promoted clubs, while overall this season, they've scored more first-half goals than anyone else, while no side has conceded fewer in the opening stanza.

Erling Haaland also has a grand record against those newbies - nine goals in eight games - and the man who averages a goal a game in the competition should put fear into a rejigged backline.

Adding the Norwegian to score at any time to City to lead at HT and FT creates a Bet Builder just shy of even money.

For those seeking a bigger multiple, those Rodri shots may be worth following, while the fouls market could also help.

Josko Gvardiol has managed 2+ fouls in five of his last nine and it out at 13/53.60 here.

On the other side of the ball, Lockyer could be of interest if he recovers from injury - 10/34.33 in the same market about something that has occurred in four of his last seven seems big.

Meanwhile, Alfie Doughty could have his hands full if he fills in for Kabore on the right as that could put him up against Jack Grealish, who has been one of the most-fouled Premier League players ever since his Aston Villa days.

The problem with backing Luton for fouls is that that may opt to sit off and block rather than engage, as often happens in City games, and so the fouls market is not for me on this occasion.

Opta fact

Manchester City have won 13 of their last 14 Premier League games against newly promoted sides (D1) since a 1-2 home defeat to Leeds United in April 2021. Away from home, the Citizens are unbeaten in 13 league games against promoted sides (W11 D2) since defeat at Norwich in September 2019 (2-3).