Luton v Aston Villa: Weigh in for Watkins in 17/2 Bet Builder

Ollie Watkins can net again
Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins

In-form Ollie Watkins can strike again and help Aston Villa outscore Luton on Saturday evening, says Dave Tindall...

  • Luton are leaking goals but still scoring them

  • Back-to-form Villa are more reliable away now

  • Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey are in great form

  • Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

  • Luton Town v Aston Villa
    Saturday March 02, 17:30
    Live on Sky Sports Premier League

    Luton leaking goals at worrying rate

    Everton's points deduction being reduced from 10 to six has dropped Luton back in serious trouble and they go into the latest round of Premier League fixtures now four points behind fourth-bottom Nottingham Forest.

    The Hatters have a game in hand at least and continue to show plenty of spirit but with just a third of the season to go, this is now no longer the time for plucky defeats.

    At the start of February, Luton roared into a 4-2 lead at Newcastle and were looking good for a fourth straight win in all competitions after FA Cup successes at Bolton and Everton as well as a 4-0 thumping of Brighton in the Premier League.

    But Newcastle hit back to force a 4-4 draw and Luton have since suffered four straight defeats. Alarmingly, they've also conceded 19 goals in their last five matches following a 6-2 home shellacking at the hands of Manchester City in the FA Cup on Tuesday night.

    Villa looking good for top four

    While Luton are going the wrong way, Aston Villa look to be coming on strong again after a recent blip which saw them lose an FA Cup replay to Chelsea (1-3) and suffer a second home defeat four days later to Manchester United in the Premier League (1-2).

    An Ollie Watkins double got them back on the winning trail at Fulham and then they turned on the style to beat Nottingham Forest 4-2 at Villa Park last weekend.

    Those back-to-back successes have made it 16 wins from 26 top-flight games for Unai Emery's side this season and they're now 1.991/1 on the exchange to finish fourth. Villa are currently five points ahead of fifth-placed Tottenham although Spurs have a game in hand.

    That impressive tally of victories includes a 3-1 home win over Luton in October in the first meeting between the two sides.

    Emery's side have improved on the road

    Villa appeared to be settling into a pattern of being brilliant at home but flakey on the road in the early part of the season.

    But after losing three of their first six away fixtures, the Villans have won four, drawn two and lost just one of their last seven on the road.

    On those numbers they're deserved 1.784/5 favourites to beat a side that have lost eight of their 13 home games. Luton are 4.57/2 to get a much-needed three points while The Draw is also 4.57/2.

    One starting point in terms of a bet is to note that Luton have scored in each of their last 13 Premier League games. Adding to that is that they've scored in 12 of their 13 home PL matches. In other words, we can almost pencil Luton in for a goal.

    Villa have let in 20 away goals in the Premier League and, more recently, have conceded eight times in their last four mathes in all comps so it's fair to expect Luton's goal streak to continue.

    Watkins and Bailey to star in Bet Builder

    Only Erling Haaland and Mo Salah have scored more Premier League goals than Ollie Watkins this season.

    Taking into account all games, it's worth noting that 11 of his 19 strikes in club colours have come away from home.

    That makes him a very obvious but appealing bet to score here and a Watkins goal can definitely be included in a Bet Builder.

    English Premier League - Top 5 Goalscorers

    Player Team Goals Scored
    Erling Haaland Man City 18
    Ollie Watkins Aston Villa 16
    Dominic Solanke Bournemouth 15
    Mohamed Salah Liverpool 15
    Jarrod Bowen West Ham 14

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    Leon Bailey set up Watkins' early strike against Forest last week and the Jamaican winger looks bang in form.

    He has seven assists in the PL this season and if Luton leave gaps and push forward, Bailey can make hay.

    So, to simplify everthing, in a game that should feature goals, I like Villa to outscore Luton, with Watkins and Bailey key figures in an away win.

    Back Aston Villa to win, both teams to score, Ollie Watkins to score and Leon Bailey to assist on Bet Builder @ 17/29.50

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Staked: 36pts

Returned: 19.4pts

P/L: -16.60pts

2022/2023 P/L: +£16.79
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2020/2021 P/L: +£3.06

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