Liverpool's mixed signs
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Saturday 29 August, 12:30
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The eye test and the stats didn't really marry up as Liverpool opened their season with a 2-2 draw at Newcastle.
The overall feeling was that the Reds rather got away with it after Dominik Szoboszlai rifled home a penalty deep into injury time to rescue a point. And yet, scanning the numbers, no team registered more shots (27) than the Reds on opening weekend.
As for xG, Liverpool won that 2.73 to 1.43 but, again, that seemed surprising given that Newcastle could have added to their two breakaway goals.
Perhaps this is just the sort of chaos that we'd expect in the early days of Andoni Iraola as he tries to embed his system with a team used to the slower rhythms of Arne Slot.
Read Paul Higham's preview of Tottenham v Newcastle here.
Forest felled in opener
Oliver Glasner started his reign at Nottingham Forest with a home defeat to Leeds. Then again, that's the norm as each of The Trees' last six permanent managers had lost their first Premier League game in charge.
Glasner is Forest's fifth head coach in less than 12 months so it was hardly a shock to lose to an established Leeds side very much on the up. The manner of it was frustrating though with Forest conceding an Anton Stach free-kick with two minutes left.
"It was an OK performance from both teams," was Glasner's assessment later. The two then met again a few days later in the Carabao Cup and this time it was a 2-0 Leeds win. There were even a few boos from disgruntled Forest fans.
With very little threat up front, Glasner will be pleased to see Forest agree to splash out and pay a club-record £50m to sign striker Liam Delap from Chelsea.
Read Ste Tudor's early look at this weekend's Premier League action
Forest seek Anfield hat-trick
Liverpool, who beat Glasner's Crystal Palace 3-1 at Anfield at the back end of last season, are 40/851.47 to take victory. They've won their first home game in 12 of the last 13 campaigns.
Nottingham Forest were a bogey team for Slot, the Dutch manager losing both home games against them: 1-0 in 2024/25 and 3-0 last season. They're 5/16.00 to make it three in a row while The Draw is 7/24.50.
To be honest, this looks a trappy market. Forest have enjoyed this fixture in the last couple of seasons but Iraola won't be as wary of it as Slot would have been.
And a pair of opening defeats suggests Glasner has work to do so I'll leave it alone and look elsewhere for the best bets.
Under-fire duo can double up
After paying out a fortune for Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, Liverpool have every right to expect more.
The pair underwhelmed in the draw at Newcastle but I don't think Liverpool have worked out their away formula and formation yet.
It could be a different story at Anfield where, in pre-season, Isak and Wirtz looked far more connected in the 2-0 win over Como.
With more of the ball and the spaces tighter they played more like a classic No.9 and No.10 and Reds fans will hope to see a repeat of that against Forest.
Both scored - as they did against Glasner's Palace at Anfield last season - and, for this one, I'm going to back the pair to have an impact via an Isak goal and a Wirtz assist. It pays 4/15.00.
Back Alexander Isak To Score and Florian Wirtz to Assist in Bet Builder
Take a shot at Liverpool full-backs
Liverpool's full-backs, Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez, are going to push forward much more with Iraola in charge.
Last season, under Slot, Kerkez looked particularly restricted and the Hungarian will find it more enjoyable bombing forward like he used to do at Iraola's Bournemouth.
Kerkez had a shot on target in the opener against Newcastle and let's back him to test the goalkeeper again.
Combine that with Frimpong doing the same and the Liverpool full-backs are 13/114.00 both to have a shot on target.
Back Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez both to have 1 Or More Shots On Target