Liverpool v Manchester City: Champions to end Reds' run

• Erling Haaland has already scored 15 Premier League goals
• Reds have made worst Premier League start for a decade
• Alexander-Arnold, Matip and Diaz all expected to miss out
• Salah and Haaland part of an 8/1 Bet Builder
• Get a £5 Free Bet when placing a £5 Bet Builder on this match

Ibrox win papers over the cracks

Liverpool fans haven't had a lot to shout about this season, so they can be forgiven for luxuriating in the stunning 7-1 Champions League win at Rangers in midweek.

Mo Salah, so often a peripheral and seemingly jaded figure this term, bashed in a six-minute hat-trick (the fastest in UCL history) to boost his confidence and remind everyone what he's capable of.

However, a crippling injury list and a clear drop-off in the intensity which underpins Liverpool's whole approach have combined to hole the Reds' title push below the waterline.

Yes, they nearly recovered from a 14-point deficit in last season's title race, but a defeat against City this weekend would leave them 16 adrift of Pep Guardiola's side.

Liverpool aren't pressing as effectively as usual, they are making far more defensive errors than before (Virgil van Dijk actually looks human at the moment), and summer signing Darwin Nuñez is understandably taking time to settle.

Opta tell us that Liverpool have already lost as many games in the league as they did in the whole of last season (two), and they have made their worst start to a Premier League campaign for a decade.

It has a similar feel to their PL title defence, when injuries to key players in defence unravelled the entire campaign, before a late surge saw Jürgen Klopp's men snatch a Champions League spot.

Luis Diaz, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joel Matip, Naby Keita, Arthur, Curtis Jones and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are all on the sidelines with injury.

Roberto Firmino's outstanding form this term (he scored a brace in midweek and has eight goals across his last nine appearances) should get him a starting spot in attack.

Haaland redrawing City's boundaries

Without Erling Haaland, Manchester City have won four Premier Leagues in five years under Pep Guardiola. With the Norwegian, the Citizens could finally elevate themselves to the rank of European champions, and then perhaps then world champions.

The former Salzburg and Borussia Dortmund sharpshooter is a true marvel, a seemingly faultless goal machine.

The 22-year-old gives an already excellent team a significant safety net. If City aren't hitting top gear, Haaland has the capacity to change a game with a darting run, a long-range rocket or a scruffy poacher's goal.

According to Jake Osgathorpe from Infogol and the Betfair podcast Football Only Bettor, Haaland has already smashed in 15 Premier League goals from an xG of 9.06.

Jake believes that even if that overperformance drops to 40%, then fitness-permitting Haaland has a 99% chance of finishing the campaign with at least 40 goals.

These are staggering, almost unfathomable numbers.

City haven't quite been perfect, and they aren't top of the table yet. They have drawn at Aston Villa and Newcastle United, and they have conceded nine goals across their first nine top-flight matches.

However, the Infogol stats show they have the best xGF (22.5 - they have scored 33) and xGA (7.2 - they have conceded nine) in the league, and it seems that anyone who backed City ante-post to win the title this term was on the right track.

They are now a skinny 1.232/9 to finish top of the table once again.

John Stones, Kalvin Phillips and Kyle Walker are all out injured, but Rodri would've taken the number six role anyway, and Manuel Akanji has made a good start after his move from Borussia Dortmund.

City too good a price to ignore

The Opta stats show that Liverpool have gone five Premier League games without a win against Manchester City, and although the Reds triumphed 3-1 in the Community Shield at the start of the season, a lot has gone wrong since then for the Merseyside giants.

Liverpool have gone 27 home games without defeat in the Premier League, and that's a record that deserves respect, but this isn't a usual clash between these sides. The Reds lack confidence, they are without key players and their Herculean efforts to win the quadruple last term have indisputably had a negative physical and mental effect.

I'm happy to back a City win at a generous 1.9420/21, but it's also worth noting that this is a Bet 5 Get 5 game, which gives you a free £5 bet if you stake a £5 Bet Builder.

You could combine a City win with Erling Haaland to score and Over 2.5 Goals in the match at 2.9539/20.

If you want something a bit bolder, you could go for Erling Haaland and Mo Salah to score (Salah has scored in the last three PL editions of this fixture at Anfield), Over 3.5 Goals (paid out in 4/8 Liverpool games in the PL this term, and 6/9 PL games involving City) and Robert Firmino to have a shot on target (he has had 13, the fifth-highest in the league ahead of this weekend).

That gives you a combined price of 9.12203/25 on the Sportsbook.