Liverpool v Man City: Back Mac Allister 19/1 Bet Builder in big one

• Title epic too close to call so draw appeals @ 3.953/1

• Klopp & Pep would shake hands on a stalemate now

• Mac Allister a player in the assist market @ 4/15.00

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Liverpool v Man City
Sunday March 10, 15:45
Live on Sky Sports

Looks like a draw? Quacks like a draw? Then it's probably a draw

What's that coming over the hill? It's a monster. A monster.

A Super Sunday to savour, indeed. Teed up by Aston Villa v Tottenham at 1pm before this monster is unleashed at 3.45pm as two of the greatest teams on the planet, led by two managerial greats, head into battle. The rivalry between Klopp and Guardiola, the two greatest coaches of their era, are meeting in the Premier League for one final time. It's a game to savour for so many reasons.

So, who's going to win? To be honest, I haven't a clue. Thanks for that, Lewis.

You could play this game 99 times at a neutral venue and it wouldn't surprise me if Liverpool won 33, City won 33 and it ended as a draw 33 times. The previous meetings between the two showcase just how much fine margins are at play. Over the last 17 games: there have been six wins for Liverpool, six for Man City and five draws.

When assessing the match prices, there is an argument to be made that Liverpool are overpriced at 3.1511/5 on the Betfair Exchange based on their stunning record at Anfield.

As betting guru Mark O'Haire referenced on this week's Football Only Bettor podcast, Liverpool have lost just one game in their last 102 Premier League games at Anfield if you exclude games behind closed doors. A badge of honour there for Jesse Marsch and his Leeds team.

Despite that imperious record, I still think this game will play out with the air of "must not lose" in the air. And there is of course a way to back both teams not to lose - by backing the draw, which stands out at 3.8514/5.

There's a strong possibility the game may head down the same avenue as the previous fixture this season that ended 1-1 where the last 30 minutes were a non-event.

And the last time these two met in a first v second battle during a run-in it ended 2-2 in 2022 when City went onto win the Premier League title by one point.

That means that the score draw is overpriced.

Despite the draw being the outsider of the three outcomes on the Exchange, correct scores of 1-1 at 9.008/1 and 2-2 at 12.523/2 are the first and third most likely scores according to the correct score market. That doesn't really add up so there is an edge to exploit. You can get 16/54.20 on the Sportsbook for both teams to score and the game to end in a draw, basically backing the draw but eliminating the 0-0.

Return of the Mac

Alexis Mac Allister is becoming a Jurgen Klopp player. There is trust there. And the Argentine is revelling playing further forward after a sketchy start to life at Anfield trying to play as a holding midfielder.

The inclusion of Waturu Endo into Klopp's midfield has seemingly settled Mac Allister down too - he's looks much more composed, confident and he's becoming a creative force in this Liverpool side.

Across the last seven Premier League games, Mac Allister is the 10^th most creative player in the league when it comes to chances created per 90, where he is averaging 2.6. There's been three assists in the league during that time, too. Two in the comeback win at Anfield over Luton and the delicious cross he provided for Darwin Nunez to head home at Nottingham Forest deep into injury time.

There was another Mac Allister to Nunez goal combination on Thursday night against Sparta Prague, adding further weight to his assist chances this weekend in the big one. This spike in his creative output hasn't really been spotted by the market meaning the [4/1] on offer for Mac Allister to register another assist looks a bet to ponder.

Those interested in chasing a long shot whilst enjoying what should be one of the games of the season, should consider combing both angles of the match ending a draw with both teams scoring and Mac Allister to register an assist at a juicy 19/120.00 using the Bet Builder.

Now read all of our weekend Premier League tips here!

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