Liverpool v Chelsea: Back HT trend at a decent price and 10/1 Bet Builder

• There have been 7 successive draws between these sides

• Chelsea have never trailed at HT this season

• Half-time draw at 2.767/4 makes appeal

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Liverpool v Chelsea
Wednesday 31 January, 20:15
Live on TNT Sports 1

Liverpool don't really do defeats and I'm sure there will be plenty of people happy to back them to win this match at 1.635/8.

It's now just one loss in their last 17 games for the Reds, and that came in a 'dead' Europa League group-stage match.

Klopp's Quad squad?

The awkward Jurgen Klopp news of last week was perfectly timed with any internal shockwaves having no effect on the field on Sunday as Norwich were swept aside by a below full-strength team - a tie they were always likely to progress from. Doubtless that is why the announcement came when it did.

During their run, Liverpool have climbed to the top of the Premier League, moved into the last 16 of both the Europa League and FA Cup and also progressed to the League Cup final. It could be quite a swansong for Klopp.

International stars Mo Salah and Wataru Endo haven't been missed, at least not yet, with the squad depth at Anfield very much up to scratch so far this season as they battle on four fronts. As a boost, Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold were both back on Sunday.

Chelsea data is encouraging

On home soil, Liverpool have won eight and drawn two in the league, so it's clear this is a tough assignment for a Chelsea side whose consistency still leaves a lot to be desired.

While they sit only ninth - worrying from the perspective that Champions League football must have been the minimum goal at the start of the season - there are positive signs in the underlying data.

Since the very start of the campaign, results haven't necessarily followed performance levels - at least that's what the data says.

The Blues are fifth for expected goals (xG) and have the sixth-best defensive record when it comes to expected goals against (xGA). Those two datasets help produce an expected points (xPTS) table in which Chelsea sit fifth.

Creating chances hasn't been a big problem - it's putting the ball in the net which has proved difficult and with Nicolas Jackson currently away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Mauricio Pochettino is trying to find solutions.

As has been the case for much of the season, injuries are undermining that effort with the loss of Christopher Nkunku of particular frustration - the French star was supposed to be the man putting away those chances but he's barely played.

Another draw?

Still, there's hope he will return here and that would be a major boost to a side, who do at least look capable of causing Liverpool a few problems.

Some teams get rolled over at Anfield but Chelsea seem unlikely to go that way.

Games between these sides have traditionally been close, hard-fought encounters and seven successive draws help show that. Another draw on Wednesday is offered at a tempting 4.77/2.

Follow HT trend

However, the approach I'm going to take here is for Chelsea to continue a strong trend - namely being level at the break.

That's happened in 15 of their 21 league games so far this season, including eight of 10 on the road. Remarkably, they've not trailed at half time in any of those 21 matches.

Liverpool's stats on this are also encouraging. Perhaps surprisingly, they've only led at half time in four of their 10 at Anfield with the other six being all square.

It's 2.767/4 on the Exchange that the first half is drawn and that looks good on those numbers.

When you also consider how this may unfold, the case can be strengthened.
Chelsea will be fully aware of Liverpool's attacking prowess and surely early focus will be on keeping things tight.

They've only conceded twice in their last five games so defensively solidity has been on show, while the hosts, for all the quality in their squad, won't have their best player, Salah, in their ranks which has to be a boost for the visitors.

For those seeking a bigger price, Draw-Liverpool in the HT-FT market pays out at 5.49/2 and it isn't hard to envisage Liverpool huffing and puffing in the second half before finally blowing the door down, if the game is level at the interval.

Jota a Bet Builder option

Other potential angles, include Liverpool winning from behind - they've already claimed 19 points this way this season.

Fulham and Arsenal have both scored first at Anfield in recent weeks, so don't rule out Chelsea doing so.

In the absence of Salah, it may also be worth siding with Diogo Jota in terms of Liverpool goals.

The Portuguese actually has a better minutes-per-goal figure than Salah this season, bagging one every 107 minutes (to Salah's 114), while he's scored with an excellent 32% of his shots.

Jota is 2.8815/8 to score at any time in this contest.

Opta fact

Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League games, as many as their previous 10 beforehand (D2 L5). Mauricio Pochettino could become the first Chelsea manager to win four successive league matches with the club since Thomas Tuchel from January to March 2022 (5).

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