Leicester v Everton: Provider Justin the man to follow

Brendan Rodgers
Brendan Rodgers: Has a defensive decision to make

Leicester host Everton in one of Wednesday's early Premier League kick-offs and Andy Schooler has picked out an 8/1 shot for the match.

"Justin got plenty of balls into the box on Sunday, one of which was finished off by Vardy, and his delivery could well be the source of goals again."

Back James Justin for an anytime assist at 8/1

Leicester v Everton
Wednesday 16 December, 18:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video

Everton set for different test

In beating Chelsea on Saturday, Everton claimed their first clean sheet since the opening day of the season - their makeshift defence rightly earning praise.

A team which has become used to conceding twice per game will doubtless take confidence from that but here they will face a much different challenge, certainly from a defensive viewpoint.

With Olivier Giroud playing through the middle, Chelsea failed to produce a defence-splitting pass in the 90 minutes at Goodison.

The Londoners also failed to have an impact from wide areas, Everton's tracking midfielders and solid full-backs denying them the opportunity to get to the byline with anything like regularity.

Assuming they play - and Seamus Coleman could be fit to return for this one - Mason Holgate and Ben Godfrey may face a tougher test here with James Justin and Mark Albrighton causing Brighton all sorts of problems on Sunday night in what proved to be a comfortable 3-0 win.

Jamie-Vardy-close-up-shout-1280.jpg

And, of course, in central areas there will be the pacy runs of Jamie Vardy, not to mention to the marauding James Maddison, who had his best game since his injury problems against the Seagulls.

Rodgers facing tricky decision

Leicester seem more likely to have problems at the other end of the field where they will have to deal with the league's top scorer, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, without Jonny Evans, who is suspended.

That means a tough decision for boss Brendan Rodgers, who could bring in veteran Wes Morgan for his first Premier League start of the season.

Alternatively, Caglar Soyuncu could be risked - he has been approaching fitness but has played only 17 minutes since October 4 - or Rodgers could opt to move to a flat back four, a system he has used in the Europa League recently.

Goals on the cards

Whatever Rodgers decides, it's not hard to see why there may be a little uncertainty at the back for the hosts, who conceded twice in a home defeat to Fulham recently. They also gave up some early chances against Brighton.

For all the plaudits Everton received, they had to rely on the woodwork twice keeping Chelsea out, not to mention a good Jordan Pickford save.

I'm therefore happy to side with over 2.5 goals at 1.728/11, although it's hardly a bet to lump on.

This has occurred in 14 of the sides' last 17 meetings, while this season it's landed in 75% of Leicester games and 58% of those involving Everton.

Honours even?

I prefer this market to getting involved with the match result.

Both sides help sum up an unpredictable season, Leicester having won three and lost three at home, while who could have predicted that loss to Fulham?

Everton's season has also been something of a rollercoaster with their flying start soon fading away. They will hope Saturday's surprise victory will reinvigorate their campaign but 3.412/5 about them winning here doesn't set the pulse racing.

Leicester clearly have the weapons to cause Everton's still under-strength defence problems but again 2.265/4 isn't mouthwatering given the Foxes have won just half of their home games, none of which has come against a team with more points than Everton.

If pushed, I'd side with the draw at 3.65, although it's notable that Leicester have yet to play out such a result in this season's Premier League.

Justin looks a tasty price

Instead, there's a value pick I like in the anytime assist market - and it's that man James Justin, who was outstanding against Brighton.

He and fellow wing-back Albrighton switched sides at times during the match but it was down the right where Justin had most success - and that's the side where Godfrey will again be playing out of position.

Justin got plenty of quality balls into the box on Sunday, one of which was finished off by Vardy, and his delivery could well be the source of goals again.

The youngster looks a good price at 8/1 to claim a third assist of the league campaign.

Vardy is another to consider in this market - he's available at 17/2 despite having landed this bet in three of his last six Premier League games.

Opta fact

Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League games against Leicester, doing so in a 2-0 away win in December 2016.

What the Opta stats say: A look ahead to gameweek 13 in the EPL

Andy Schooler's P/L 2020/21

Staked: 41pts
Returned: 27.41pts
P/L: -13.59pts

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