Leeds v Newcastle: Goals fancied at 2/1 in Elland Road thriller and Elanga key to 4/1 Bet Builder

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Unbeaten teams set for Elland Road thriller

Leeds United host Newcastle United on Monday night with both teams having made unbeaten starts to their Premier League campaigns, and we could be set for a terrific clash under the Elland Road lights.

Daniel Farke's men started the new season with back-to-back away wins over Nottingham Forest, one in the league and one in the EFL Cup, and they followed that up with draws against two teams - Brentford and Brighton - that are well fancied to challenge for a top six finish this term.

That solid start - they won just three times on the road all last season - suggests that Leeds can enjoy a good campaign, and having tipped them before a ball was kicked to finish in the top half, I've seen nothing so far that would change my mind. They were 9/43.25 to finish in the top 10, they are now just 5/42.25.

New Magpies boss Matthias Jaissle has seemingly already won over the home faithful thanks to an exciting brand of football that has seen his team score twice against each of Liverpool, Tottenham and Bournemouth.

While Newcastle will have been disappointed to be pegged back twice in a 2-2 draw with Liverpool on the opening weekend of the season, they will have been delighted to fight back from 0-2 down at home to Bournemouth last week to earn a 2-2 draw.

The concern is that Jaissle's men were wide open in the first half against the Cherries, conceding 13 shots, and it's that statistic, in addition to the attacking way both teams like to play, and some recent head-to-head results, that I believe we could be in for a highly-entertaining affair.

Hard to pick a winner

I'm not particularly interested in the Match Odds market simply because, in a game that I expect to be free-flowing between two evenly-matched teams, it's difficult to have a huge amount of confidence in any of the three possible outcomes.

Leeds are the favourites to win the match at 13/102.30, with Newcastle at 19/102.90 and the Draw at 12/53.40, but it's a market I'm happy to swerve, especially given that the last four meetings between these two sides at Elland Road have resulted in one win for Leeds, one for Newcastle and two draws.

Entertainers can deliver Monday night goals

Leeds and Newcastle have produced some classics in recent years at Elland Road, including a 5-2 home win and a 2-2 draw, and although this fixture last season ended goalless, the reverse fixture was one of the games of the season with the Magpies scoring two late goals to record a 4-3 win.

So, with the evidence of what we've seen so far this term, we can be very optimistic that goals will be on show on Monday night.

Newcastle's three league games this season have produced a total of 10 goals, while they also won 3-2 in the second round of the EFL Cup. Leeds' games haven't been quite as high scoring, but their last two league games did result in both teams finding the back of the net and they go into this game on the back of a thrilling 6-3 defeat to Chelsea in the EFL Cup.

So, in what is sure to be an electric atmosphere on Monday night - something that I believe always helps raise performance levels - I'm going to back Shots and Goals in this encounter.

We'll come on to the Shots angles soon, but in terms of Goals it's 3/41.75 that we witness Over 2.5 on Monday night, but I'm happy to take a chance that we'll see at least four and back Over 3.5 Goals at 2/13.00.

Elanga Shots on Target appeals

While both Leeds and Newcastle are very capable of playing front-foot attacking football, arguably one of their key strengths is attacking at speed when they turn the ball over. In Jayden Bogle and Anthony Elanga, each team has a very fast right-sided player who has started the season extremely well.

Elanga is the player who interests me most, however. In three Premier League games this season, he has registered four shots with three being on target, scoring two goals. And in Newcastle's midweek win in the EFL Cup he registered three shots (two on target) in around 25 minutes after coming on as a substitute.

What those stats tell us is that Elanga is very accurate when getting his shots away and usually hits the target (five of his seven shots have been on target this season), so in a game where I'm expecting a high shot count, I'd rather back him at 7/24.50 to register two or more shots on target than the 13/82.63 about him having three or more shots (on or off target).

One of the reasons I'm expecting a high shots count is not just the prospect of an entertaining game between two teams that like to attack, but it's also because of this season's stats.

In Newcastle's opening game this season, a total of 40 shots were registered, and in their only two away games this term we witnessed 28 shots (at Tottenham) and 34 shots (at Millwall).

As for Leeds, they have only played once at Elland Road this term (against Brentford), where a total of 34 shots were registered. And in their two subsequent games - both away from home - we saw 30 shots (at Brighton) and 34 shots (at Chelsea).

That's a lot of evidence to suggest we can expect another high shot count, so I will back 30+ Match Shots (5/42.25 if you want to back it as a single) along with a more cautious approach to my two main bets, Over 2.5 Goals and Elanga to have one or more Shots on Target, in a Bet Builder that pays out at 4/15.00 if successful.

Remember, Safe Sub applies to all player props bets, so if Elanga is substituted, that part of the Bet Builder rolls on to the player who replaces him.

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