Leeds United v Brentford: Toney to shine in firefight

• Teams played out a seven-goal game last time

• Toney one of the league's best strikers

• Bet Builder comes out at nearly evens

Marsch needs time , but will he get it?

After a 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa, Leeds United boss Jesse Marsch enthused about his team's performance, calling it the most complete display since he arrived at the club to replace Marcelo Bielsa. The data backs the American coach up - according to the Infogol data, the Whites won the Expected Goals battle 2.84 to 1.15.

However, the Premier League is an unforgiving place, and the Yorkshire giants are just two points above the dropzone. Marsch has been backed in the transfer market, and has previously worked with Tyler Adams, Brenden Aaronson, Rasmus Kristensen and Maxi Wöber, so he clearly has a big amount of input when it comes to the recruitment strategy. Leeds are expected to give Marsch time, but the owners' patience won't be infinite, and the manager has to find a way to stop giving up presentable chances.

Leeds have leaked 33 goals in 18 PL games this term, and that's pretty much bang in line with their Expected Goals Against figure, so the defensive side of the game needs plenty of work. That said, there are fireworks at the other end. Italian international forward Willy Gnonto has already been a big hit (he scored a stunning volley in an FA Cup win over Cardiff in midweek), Spanish international Rodrigo has already rattled in ten league goals, and the signing of young French forward Georginio Rutter from Hoffenheim is an exciting step.

Stuart Dallas, Crysencio Summerville and Adam Forshaw are all still sidelined, while Robin Koch, Liam Cooper and Maxi Wöber are all carrying knocks.

Frank hoping Bees fans appreciate the good times

Brentford boss Thomas Frank recently admitted his club are producing "pinch yourself" moments on a regular basis, and this is certainly a golden era for Bees fans. Frank has thoroughly earned the long-term contract he's just signed, having led the West London club into the Premier League for the first time, and having kept them there with room to spare. I used to cover Brentford for ClubCall many moons ago, when they were chasing promotion from the third tier under Martin Allen, so to see them duking it out with the great and good of the Premier League is really quite extraordinary.

Having ended last season in poor form and having lost creative spark Christian Eriksen to Manchester United, you could have been forgiven for thinking that Brentford might suffer a bout of second-season syndrome, but if anything they look stronger this time around. Brentford have beaten Liverpool and Manchester City, and avoided defeat against Chelsea and Spurs, and they go into this weekend eighth in the standings. Frank's side have lost just four times in the top flight, and they are a healthy 14 points clear of the dropzone. Realistically, Brentford are probably only three or four wins away from securing survival.

Despite his current off-field issues, star striker Ivan Toney continues to perform exceptionally well. He has netted 13 goals in just 17 league games, and has set up a further three. He has already eclipsed last season's total of 12 PL strikes, and he is right up there with the best goal-getters in the division.

Frank Onyeka, Pontus Jansson, Aaron Hickey and Shandon Baptiste are all out, while there is a doubt over Rico Henry.

Goals on the menu at Elland Road

There has been plenty of money for Over 2.5 Goals in the build-up to the game, but I still think it's worth backing at 1.768/11. Nine of Leeds' last 12 competitive games have featured at least three goals, and the reverse fixture saw Brentford win 5-2. Intriguingly, 13 of Brentford's last 16 away matches in the top flight have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.

If you want to boost the price a bit, you can use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to double up Over 2.5 Goals with Toney to have at least one shot on target at 1.9620/21. Toney is averaging 1.07 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Wonderful Willy on a high

Wilfried Gnonto first came to prominence with Zurich in the Swiss Super League last season, as FCZ secured a shock title ahead of more illustrious rivals like Basel and Young Boys. He made some encouraging appearances in the Nations League for Italy as part of Roberto Mancini's rebuild, and since his arrival at Elland Road he has been in electrifying form. The 19-year-old scored an FA Cup brace in midweek, he found the net against West Ham in the Premier League, and he's a fan favourite already.

You can back Gnonto to score at any time at 23/10 on the Sportsbook, and given that he has set up a PL goal too, you can back him in the Score or Assist market at 5/4.