Jones Knows Premier League Notebook: Back Brighton to smash Man Utd in a corner race

• Brighton's high-line bamboozled Everton

• When a team plays a high line, oppose corners

• It's Man Utd next - and there's value galore to be had

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Betfair SuperBoost

Manchester United travel to Brighton with it all to do, that's according to the odds that as the home side as favourites off the back of the performance of the weekend at Everton.

One of the star players last week was Kaoru Mitoma, back from a lengthy injury last season and netting Brighton's first goal of the season.

Mitoma is a menace for defenders on the left wing, proven by getting Ashley Young sent off after nipping past him and forcing the former Man Utd player to drag him back.

Indeed, Mitoma was fouled 1 or more times in 14 of his 19 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 1.39 fouls won per 90 minutes played. Plus, he has also won 1 or more fouls in all his previous appearances against Manchester United.

Betfair have SuperBoosted him to be fouled one or more times again vs Manchester United, from 1/3 to 1/1!

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Hurzeler's high-line can help us beat the markets

Brighton have done it again haven't they?

The early signs in pre-season and from their 3-0 win over Everton suggest Tony Bloom and his motley crew of football data gurus and administrators have built a football team to punch above their weight, led by a richly talented coach in Fabian Hurzeler.

The markets have reacted accordingly on the Betfair Exchange with Brighton's price in the season handicap where they have been given +32 points being cut from 16.015/1 to 10.519/2, meaning they are the favourites in that market now. A top 10 finish is in from 1.910/11 to 1.68/13 and even a top four finish has been backed from 17.016/1 to 11.010/1.

There still might be juice in all those prices based on the way they attacked at Goodison Park with such pace, power and creativity.

One big change to their style of play from the Roberto De Zerbi days was their ability to catch Everton offside. They played a very risky high-line that already looks to be working a treat as Everton were flagged offside seven times in the 3-0 defeat.

Teams that like to play an aggressive high line are notoriously associated with conceding fewer corners. It makes sense.

The key goal of trying to catch opposition players offside is to keep them from having sustained pressure on your goal. If you can keep a team away from your box, then the likelihood of the opposition managing to post shots that could lead to corners or getting deep down the wings to force corners is reduced.

A great example is Aston Villa last season - they conceded just 161 corners (4.2 per game) adopting a very aggressive defensive line under Unai Emery and that was the fourth fewest of any team. Meanwhile, Manchester United - a team happy to sit deeper and soak up pressure - conceded 279 corners last season - the most of any team to an average of 7.3 per game.

To simplify the theory, the higher and more aggressive the defensive line, the fewer corners are likely to be conceded. And the market doesn't price up the corner markets with that factored in, so we're in business.

The trend is already there for Hurzeler's teams conceding a low amount of corners from his time at St Pauli, who won the Bundesliga 2 title last season and conceded just 130 corners to an average of just 3.8 per game - the fewest of any team.

Therefore, it wasn't a big surprise to see Brighton restrict Everton on Saturday in terms of corners won.

Sean Dyche's team - who play to win set pieces - won just one corner at Goodison Park on Saturday as they struggled to beat the Brighton high-line and sustain attacks for large periods. It was only the second time in Dyche's reign that Everton failed to win more than one corner in a game at Goodison.

Brighton's next opponent has got me licking my lips: Manchester United at home on Saturday at 12.30pm.

Erik ten Hag's men conceded eight corners on the opening night vs Fulham, suggesting not much has really changed in their shape without the ball that sees them drop very deep. All this adds up to Brighton becoming very interesting in the corner markets match bet market, though the 8/151.53 on the Seagulls is slighter less than I was hoping so.

However, at 5/42.25 in the corners handicap market, Brighton giving United a two-corner start and still coming out on top appeals as the bet bet. United may just take a pasting in both markets I sense.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's outright Bundesliga tips here!

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.