• Added time has meant Premier League goal increase

• Fulham's excellent underlying figures

• Arsenal could be short defensively due to injuries

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

Fulham v Arsenal Superboost

Back Bukayo Saka to have one or more shots on target and to be fouled one or more times when the Gunners travel to Craven Cottage on Sunday. The Arseanl star has had six shots on target in his last four games and he's been fouled at least once in each of his last seven.

To take advantage of this super-boosed price of 1/12.00 (from 1/21.50) just click on the odds in the below Bet Banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Fulham v Arsenal (Sun, 14:00)

I'm always looking for an over 2.5 goals bet in the Premier League, since the increase in additional time has meant an increase in goals, and I like the chances of one here.

Since the beginning of last season, the Premier League has seen 1,655 goals in 518 games - an average of 3.19 per-game. Compare that to 2022/23, the last season before VAR was introduced, when we saw 1,084 goals in 380 games - 2.85 per-game. That season wasn't an anomaly either, with 21/22 seeing 2.82 per-game and 20/21 seeing 2.69 per-game. With 3.19 expected goals, we get a blanket price of around 1.635/8 yet we can get 1.804/5 here, hence my interest.

Underachieving Fulham could be due an upturn

Low-key Fulham are having a great season, albeit sitting 12th in the league but fourth on expected points - the third biggest underachievers in the league, so there's potential to see an upturn in results. They're being let down in-front of goal with only 18 scored compared to the 23.94 expected goals created.

The main culprits here are Raul Jimenez, Adama Traore and Andreas Pereira. Between them they've scored six goals but have accumulated 12.62 xG - twice as many. However, Craven Cottage has been a sanctuary for goals since the beginning of last season with 76 scored in just 25 games - an average of 3.04 per-game. As a result, 15 of their last 20 matches have gone over 2.5 goals (75%).

Arsenal have resurged since the international break with the welcome return to full fitness of Martin Odegaard. This has resulted in wins of 2-0, 5-2, 5-1 and 3-0, impressively scoring five in both of their away games. However, there is potentially no Gabriel in defence and likely no Riccardo Calafiori to add to the Ben White injury. It's not ideal for a side famed for their defensive prowess, and we could see some Fulham regression to the mean in-front of goal as a result.

Perfect opportunity to back over 2.5 goals

Arsenal have only conceded 14 goals, yet 16.40 expected goals. David Raya is posting a post-shot xG - actual goals figure of -0.6 so far this season, suggesting if the finishing was better from the opposition, Arsenal would have conceded more.

This fixture is normally an entertaining game since Fulham's return to the Premier League in 2018. Seven of the eight matches have gone Over 2.5 goals with a total of 28 goals - an average of 3.5 per-game - including all four at Craven Cottage - yet we have a line of 2.5 here.

With the Betfair Exchange 'Free Bet Streak' live again this weekend, it's the perfect opportunity to back Over 2.5 goals in what looks like a goal heavy game.

Column P/L 2024/25