Andy Robson makes the case for backing his Saturday treble at 4/15.00 which includes bets in the Premier League, EFL Championship and Scottish Cup...
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Warnock's Scottish disaster to continue
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Goals forecast at Selhurst Park
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Norwich could blow Rotherham away
From Carrow Road to Pittodrie, I have found another value treble to go along with the 4/15.00 winner from last week. Scottish FA Cup action has thrown up an interesting angle as has a Premier League 3pm kick-off.
Leg 1 - Aberdeen v Kilmarnock,12:15
Tip: Back Kilmarnock double chance
Kilmarnock should be strongly favoured to take Saturday's sole Scottish Cup tie against Aberdeen at least to extra-time when they visit Pittodrie.
Sitting fifth in the Scottish Premiership, there is nothing about this fixture that suggests the visitors will be defeated in normal time against their opponents, and indeed backing them to claim the victory at 3.02/1 looks excellent value.
Kilmarnock have lost only two of their last 16 matches - and both of those were against league leaders Rangers.
By contrast, Aberdeen have been dragged into a relegation battle as they struggle under the stewardship of Neil Warnock, whose arrival in the north east of Scotland has been a disaster so far.
Warnock has overseen seven matches and yet their only victory has come in the Scottish Cup against League Two outfit Bonnyrigg Rose. Even that match was only won 2-0. Remarkably, this is their only victory in their last 11 matches.
The Dons' lack of confidence was evident last weekend as they conceded twice deep in stoppage time to lose to away to St Mirren.
Only four points clear of the play-off place in the Premiership, their focus has to be on survival, and that may mean they experiment with their lineup a little.
In the head-to-head record, Kilmarnock are the dominant side. This will be the fourth meeting of the clubs this term, with the Ayrshire side winning the previous three without conceding.
Former Aberdeen boss Derek McInnes would love to complete a quartet of victories and it is remarkable his side are not shorter odds to do so.
Leg 2 - Crystal Palace v Luton Town, 15:00
Tip: Back over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace's home matches have been packed with goals this season, with an average of 2.85 goals scored per match. The hosts have looked dangerous going forward in recent home fixtures, scoring an average of two goals per game across their last six. Despite this, Palace have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game along this run.
Goals have seemed to follow Luton this season, with their away matches seeing an average of 3.75 goals per match. They have looked dangerous going forward, scoring in all but one of their last nine away matches; however, they have been poor defensively, conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game across those outings.
A minimum of three goals have been scored in seven of Palace's last nine home games and in seven of Luton's last nine away fixtures.
Three goals were scored when the two sides last met in November, and I expect a tally of three to be matched or exceeded here.
Leg 3 - Norwich City v Rotherham United, 15:00
Tip: Back over 2.5 goals
It is going from bad to worse for Millers fans. Fresh from a humbling 5-0 defeat at Coventry, Rotherham now travel to a team that have arguably even better home form in Norwich City.
Norwich looked very confident and well organised on Wednesday at Middlesbrough, until the sending off of Borja Sainz on 30 minutes. Everything changed for the Canaries at that stage, and Middlesbrough were able to use their extra man well. Norwich are not necessarily set up tactically to contain teams, and this was borne out at the Riverside.
The eventual 3-1 defeat was the sixth match in eight that has gone over 2.5 goals for the Canaries, and, indeed, five of them have seen over 3.5 goals as well. They have won five home matches in a row in the Championship, and seven out of the last eight, so one can expect goals from Norwich.
One can also expect Rotherham to concede goals. Ignoring the 5-0 reverse in the week for a moment, the Millers had previously lost seven of their last 10 away matches in the league, drawing the other three. All the defeats, and one of the draws, in this period went over 2.5 goals as well, with their opponent alone covering the 2.5 goal line on six of those occasions.
With Josh Sargent leading a resurgent Norwich attack, there is every reason to believe that goals will be on the agenda at Carrow Road on Saturday.
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