Everton v Southampton: Toffees to say goodbye to Goodison Park in style

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Everton v Southampton
Sunday May 18, 12:00
Live on TNT Sports

Goodison Goodbye

After 133 years, Everton will finally say goodbye to Goodison Park on Sunday lunchtime. This will be their 2,789th and final game at Goodison Park in all competitions and their current record stands at W1537 D660 L591. It's likely everyone connected with the club wants to go out with a bang but with emotions likely high and a lunchtime kick-off, it might actually play out more like a testimonial.

Everton are actually on a seven match winless home run (D5 L2) and the last time they had a longer run was way back in 2009 between October and December (eight). It's not as bad as it sounds when you consider they've played all of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Bournemouth in that period plus a positive spin would be only two defeats in seven against some high calibre sides. Infact looking at the bigger picture, since David Moyes returned to the club in January, Everton have only lost four of his 17 games.

As a result of the occasion and the different ways the game could go, I've a few bets I want to punt. First up is to back Over 2.5 goals at 1.875/6. Goals tend to increase towards the end of the season in dead rubber matches and if there is a party atmosphere, this Southampton defence is surely the perfect guest. The current second worst ever Premier League side have conceded a huge 82 goals in their 36 games at an average of 2.28 per-game. As a result, this has helped contribute to 14 of their last 18 games seeing Over 2.5 goals (78%).

They've kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 games and conceded two or more in 14 of those last 18. Things haven't been smooth for the Toffees at the back either, with themselves having kept only one clean sheet in their last 13 league games so even Saints could get on the scoresheet.

Everton on the offensive

Next up I want Everton onside if they do run riot. No I don't want to back them at 4/111.36 but I think it's worth chancing they rack up a sizeable victory by taking Everton -2 at 7/24.50. Southampton have conceded three or more in 10 of their last 17 matches and they've failed to score in both of their last two games where they've managed just 10 shots, suggesting they may already be on the beach, especially now they've surpassed Derby's points total.

Friendly Oliver

Finally let's back Under 1.5 cards at 4/15.00. There's every chance this plays out like a friendly match and an experienced referee like Michael Oliver will know the bigger picture that this game is about saying an emotional goodbye to Goodison Park. Southampton have collected one or fewer cards in seven of their last 14 matches including zero for both sides when they hosted Wolves.

Everton picked up zero cards against Fulham last weekend who only got one, and there were zero cards as recently as the 26th April when Everton lost 1-0 at Chelsea. There were also zero cards against fellow relegated side Leicester at the beginning of February when Everton ran out 4-0 winners at Goodison Park. A similar game here would be perfect for all my bets.

Column P/L 2024/25

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