Everton v Manchester United: Toffees home woes to continue on Monday night

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Monday, 20:00
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Toffees home form a major concern

When Everton hosted Leeds United at the end of January a big part of my preview ahead of that game was how the Toffees had began to struggle at their new home, the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

After starting life at their new home with back-to-back wins Everton then won just three of their next 11 games in front of their own fans, and in that home game against Leeds they were completely out-played for the first 45 minutes before recovering to earn a 1-1 draw.

David Moyes' men have since lost at home to Bournemouth meaning in their last 13 games (all competitions) at the HDS they have a record of W3-D4-L6. They have failed to win any of their last six home games and five of the teams they faced in that time were Wolves, Leeds, Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brentford.

But while Everton's home form has deserted them, they continue to pick up points on the road. They drew 1-1 away to Brighton following that Leeds game and then went to Fulham and won 2-1, meaning they're unbeaten in five on the road and sit comfortably in mid-table, just five points behind Merseyside rivals Liverpool (sixth) going into Matchday 27.

United in good form and score for fun on the road

Manchester United were Monday Night Football regulars just before Christmas so we've previewed them quite a lot in recent months, including their 1-1 draw at West Ham in Matchday 26.

Their recent form is good, winning four and drawing one of their last five Premier League matches, but it's their away form - and especially their scoring ability - that really stands out. Michael Carrick's men have lost just one of their last 10 away games, but you have to go back to their 3-0 defeat at Man City in September to find the last time they failed to score on the road.

That's a run of 11 consecutive away matches in which United have found the back of the net and in seven of those games they scored at least two, including two at Liverpool and Tottenham and three at league leaders Arsenal.

Chasing a fifth win a row - which would have meant a high profile haircut for one United fan - the Red Devils will have been disappointed with only a draw at relegation-threatened West Ham last time, but that result means that they're unbeaten in four on the road, and they are well on course to qualify for the Champions League next season.

Away win a very fair price

It's not often that I have a strong opinion in the Match Odds market, but at 19/201.95 to win, I'm all over a Manchester United victory here. Everton can be backed at 14/53.80 with the Draw also available at 14/53.80.

You may get a slightly better price on the Betfair Exchange, and you can track the odds below which will update in real time.

I'm a big fan of home form versus away form, it's served me quite well this season, so on that basis it's simply impossible to have any confidence about Everton winning given their current form in front of their own fans. True, there are no easy games in the Premier League but you will have expected the Toffees to pick up at least one or two wins when hosting the likes of rock-bottom Wolves, newly-promoted Leeds and Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brentford.

So having won none of those five games, and with their only home win in the last four months coming against struggling Nottingham Forest, I have to oppose them - especially without their star man Jack Grealish - against a Man United team that seem to always impress on the road.

United's only away defeat since September was at title-chasing Aston Villa, so with their ability to score regularly on their travels, and all their star attackers being fit, I fancy Carrick's men to score a few here and take all three points.

Bruno assist fancied in 3/14.00 Bet Builder

Manchester United's last two appearances on the Monday Night Football slot resulted in a 4-1 win at Wolves and a 4-4 draw with Bournemouth, so there's a good chance we'll see an entertaining game at the Hill Dickinson on Monday night. The problem I have with getting involved in a high-scoring affair is that Everton have averaged just one goal per game on home soil since early December.

However, with United scoring for 11 consecutive away games I'm happy to back them to score at least two here - something they've done in seven of those 11 games - in a Bet Builder.

I don't often put all my eggs in one basket but I will this time by including a United win also, and we'll complete the Bet Builder by including a Bruno Fernandes assist.

The United star didn't have the best of games at West Ham last time so he'll be keen to get back to his best for the final third of the season, and despite drawing a blank against the Hammers he still has seven assists to his name in his last nine appearances.

He takes corners, free-kick and penalties as well as having the ability to create goalscoring chances, so he's the man for me when backing someone to register an assist. The Bet Builder pays out at 3/14.00 and you can add it to your betslip below.

*Please Note: The above Bet Builder odds update in real time though the price was 3.97 at the time of publication.

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