English Premier League

Everton v Liverpool: How to back and trade the 22/1 0-0 correct score

Everton boss Sean Dyche
Everton boss Sean Dyche

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - thinks backing the 0-0 correct score in Everton v Liverpool is a profitable back-to-lay strategy on the Betfair Exchange...

Everton v Liverpool
Wednesday April 24, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Liverpool's title challenge to hit buffers?

Jurgen Klopp has called Everton a "different animal" in Merseyside derbies - so he knows how much the derby factor will affect Liverpool's chances of winning this football match.

This isn't just another fixture against a mediocre Premier League side - this has extra spice and has to be factored into the thinking with analysing the game.

Form doesn't go out of the window entirely but this isn't a normal football match. Any trends from past meetings do have to be factored into the mix.

And, Everton are going to drag this game down an ugly avenue and rightly so, it's worked quite well for them in past meetings at Goodison Park.

Seven of the last nine Merseyside derbies have gone under 2.5 goals, including the meeting at Anfield earlier this season where Everton had to play for much of the game with 10-men after Ashley Young was sent off. Liverpool only found a way through late that day - and I can see a similar match scenario again.

Also, nine of the last 13 Merseyside derbies at Goodison Park have ended in a draw. Klopp is right, Everton raise their game for this match and that's why Liverpool are bigger than usual at 1.51/2 on the Betfair Exchange for a game against a relegation threatened team. The home win is 7.06/1 and the draw certainly is a runner and overpriced at 5.24/1.

Back the draw @ 5.24/1

Bet here

Under 2.5 kings Everton can strike again

In a season where Premier League games remain producing goals at a rate never seen in this league with the per game average still trending at a record level of goals per 90 minutes, Everton are still swimming against that tide.

Their relatively stout defence, added to misfiring strikers, have seen their total match goals average the lowest in the Premier League and they are the only team to average under that key 2.5 goals line per game.

At home it gets even more tedious, with the average goals per game figure standing at 2.25 per game - Fulham are next in that particular table at 2.88 so Everton are a massive outlier when it comes to the goal rush this season.

No team have been involved in more under 2.5 goals games this season than Everton with 18 of their 33 going against the grain of goals and delivering two or fewer goals.

Liverpool are a very goal-heavy team that can take away a game at any point yet Sean Dyche's side have a tendency to drag a game down in terms of goals.

That's why the under 2.5 goal line at 2.727/4 looks a backable prospect - as does combining under 2.5 and the draw on the Sportsbook at 5/16.00.

Back under 2.5 goals & a draw @ 5/16.00

Bet here

Back-to-lay strategy on offer for 0-0 at 22/123.00

I'd also advise having a stab at the 0-0 correct score on the Betfair Exchange at 23.022/1 using a back-to-lay trading strategy I like to indulge in for a bet of this nature.

Four of the last six derbies at Goodison Park have ended 0-0 and I'm certain Dyche will be playing for that result. It would all but end Liverpool's title challenge too so the home fans will be more than happy to sit and stomach some major low-block football, especially after easing their relegation fears.

The aim is to trade out of the bet during the game when the price drops as the match progresses at 0-0.

Everton are still the half-time 0-0 kings as 15 of their 33 Premier League games this season have been all-square at the break, so that adds further hope of seeing no early goals.

First halves have seemingly been unaffected by the increased total goal output this season so I'd anticipate that if we can get to around 30-35 minutes with no goals we should be able to trade out on the Exchange to get out stake back but still have the 0-0 correct score running for us at a juicy return.

Then if there's a goal, nothing lost, nothing gained. All aboard the 0-0.

Back correct score of 0-0 @ 23.022/1

Bet here

Now read the Jones Knows Notebook where he tips up two bets for midweek!

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.

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