Everton v Brentford: Tarkowski fouls look overpriced at 11/5

• Duo eyeing Premier League survival

• 11/53.20 Tarkowski bet looks good

• Bet Builder at 12/113.00 worth considering

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Everton v Brentford
Saturday 27 April, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

This game would have been picked out by Sky Sports a while back with the view being that at least one, possibly two, of the sides would be in real relegation danger.

As it is, both are almost safe - a win for Brentford would seal the deal, while three points for Everton would be enough if Luton fail to beat Wolves earlier in the day.

Toffees seek four in a row at home

If the Toffees reproduce their efforts of Wednesday night against Liverpool, they may well justify odds of 2.526/4 to win the game. After all, they've won six and lost only one of their nine games against the current bottom seven.

They will be seeking their fourth successive win at Goodison Park, the first three having been secured without conceding a goal. A win to nil here is a 4.57/2 chance.

However, a repeat may be easier said than done. This will be their third game in seven days and players will likely be feeling it at this stage of the season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin can't have started three games in a week in a long time, while Vitaliy Mykolenko is set to miss out, adding to Sean Dyche's headache in the full-back positions which seem likely to be filled by Ben Godfrey and Ashley Young here, although who will play on which side seems open to question.

Forwards key for Bees

Those wide areas may well be ones Brentford try to exploit. They did well in them when crushing Luton 5-1 last weekend and, unlike their hosts, had midweek off.

The front three of Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo and Keane Lewis-Potter impressed in that one and it would be harsh to break the trio up, but Ivan Toney is likely to be fit again here and it will hard for Thomas Frank to leave out his England international.

The Bees were particularly good on the break at Kenilworth Road but I'd expect Everton to look to sit deep again - they've had only 39% of possession across the season as a whole with only Sheffield United having had the ball less.

Liverpool were thwarted by the approach, never really getting those counter-attacks for which they are famous going.

That could be Brentford's undoing and I'm also loathe to back them at 3.02/1. They've won only one of five away to the those aforementioned bottom seven.

Tarkowski fouls bet stands out

For me, the value in this game comes in the sub-markets and one bet in particular stands out.

James Tarkowski has been committing plenty of fouls for much of the season but the market doesn't appear to have caught up - the layers do tend to offer some big prices about centre-backs with the full-backs and central midfielders usually considered more likely to bother the referee.

In general, that will play out, but Tarkowski's numbers should have been taken note of by now and so hopefully we can prey on the fact they haven't been.

The England international has now landed the 2+ fouls bet in seven of his last nine games. Look a little further back and he's delivered in 13 of his last 22, yet we're getting 11/53.20 here.

Tarkowski is a captain who likes to lead by example by giving his all and he's never been afraid of getting stuck in. That is undoubtedly one of the reasons behind those numbers with Everton's plight arguably accounting for the seven-in-nine run.

One more big performance should get the job done so don't expect a let-up from Tarkowski, who should be in for a tough battle, whoever plays at centre-forward for the visitors (likely Toney or Wissa).

Of those who have played regularly for the Bees, those two, plus fellow forward Mbeumo, are Brentford's most-fouled players using the per-game metric.

Set-piece shots offer value

For those putting Bet Builders together, you'll likely know about Everton's attaching strength on set-plays - it certainly got mentioned often enough against Liverpool the other day.

Tarkowski was described after that game as "the best in the league" when it comes to attacking set-pieces but it's worth noting he's managed a shot in just four of his last 12 games.

The value in this department looks lie with Jarrad Branthwaite, who has had a shot in his last four matches (six shots in total). He's 5/61.84 for another in this contest; Tarkowski is just 3/101.30.

Interestingly, Brentford have actually had more shots from set pieces this season than Everton and, with that in mind, Ethan Pinnock is worth considering for 1+ shot too.

The Jamaican is 5/61.84 to land this bet for a ninth time in 15 games and, perhaps surprisingly, a majority of teams in the league have conceded more shots from set plays than Everton.

Adding a shot for both Branthwaite and Pinnock to Tarkowski 2+ fouls produces a Bet Builder which pays a juicy 12/113.00.

Opta fact

Bryan Mbeumo has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League starts (4 goals, 5 assists), while Brentford have won 39% of their league games when the Cameroonian has started this season (7/18), compared to 12.5% when he hasn't (2/16).

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