English Premier League

Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 9/1 Bet Builder in Everton v Arsenal

James Tarkowski Everton
James Tarkowski scored the winner in this game last season

Tom Victor previews Arsenal's trip to Everton, with Mikel Arteta's team looking to avoid a repeat of last year's defeat...


Everton v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

After going into the international break unbeaten, Arsenal have a chance to lay some demons to rest against Everton at Goodison Park.

Mikel Arteta's team had lost just once in 19 games ahead of this fixture last season, but fell to a 1-0 defeat in Sean Dyche's first game as Everton boss. Four more losses would follow before the end of the campaign, meaning the Londoners would need to settle for second.

Those three points for Dyche's team gave them the impetus to pull away from danger. Two more 1-0 wins would follow in the following few weeks, while victory by the same scoreline on the final day of the season ultimately secured safety, but this season is already looking tough.

Everton's unlikely hope

Everton's last few seasons have been tough, and that makes their record against Arsenal all the more surprising. They have won four of their last five home games against the Gunners, under four different managers: Dyche, Rafa Benitez, Carlo Ancelotti and Marco Silva.

Three points on Sunday would represent the first time in more than a century that they have managed four in a row against these opponents, but Everton's results this term haven't been the best. Both of their matches on Merseyside have ended in defeat, with Fulham's Bobby Decordova-Reid and Wolves' Saša Kalajdžić scoring the deciders in 1-0 reverses.

Only once in their history have Everton lost their first three home games without scoring. That was the 2005-06 season under David Moyes, when Man Utd, Portsmouth and Wigan were the opponents and Arteta was part of their midfield, and they're 6/42.50 to fail to score again this weekend.

The numbers tell their own story

Last season, according to the Premier League's own calculations, Arsenal were the biggest overperformers when it came to expected goals. Everton, meanwhile, were the second biggest underperformers, with only Chelsea worse off.

It hasn't got much better for the Merseyside club this term. Dyche's men have drawn a blank on three occasions but it's not for want of trying. According to Opta, their two goals from 7.3 xGF is the biggest underperformance in the Premier League so far this season.

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What's more, Arsenal's defensive record on the road is frightening as they chase a win at 2/51.40 which would be their 14th on the road since the start of last season. That's a league high, as is their 11 away clean sheets over the same period, and their only away game so far this season was a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace.

Jesus and Ødegaard's strong records

Arsenal's away form owes a fair amount to Martin Ødegaard. The captain has 10 road goals in the league since the start of last season, more than any other Premier League midfielder, while only Erling Haaland and the now-departed Harry Kane have more in that period.

While the Norwegian doesn't discriminate, team-mate Gabriel Jesus' record against Everton specifically will worry the hosts. The Brazil international has a goal every 71 minutes against them (eight goals in total), and is 6/42.50 to net at any time.

Jesus missed this game last season as he recovered from an injury which he suffered during the World Cup. He is only just back from injury now, appearing twice as a substitute, but got off the mark for the new season with a late goal against Manchester United.

Everton v Arsenal prediction

Betfair's 90 minute payout is running this weekend, meaning if you back a team that's winning after 90 minutes, it won't matter what happens after that. This means a tip on Arsenal and Man Utd to draw last time out would have come good, despite Declan Rice and Gabriel Jesus giving the hosts a stoppage-time victory, and it also applies to accas.

While Arsenal have enjoyed some high-scoring home wins against Everton, the Goodison Park fixtures tend to be cagier affairs. That's where part of our focus is, with Betfair giving away a free acca or Bet Builder this weekend.

Arsenal might be favourites to win this game, but we've got our eye on some other areas for this weekend's Bet Builder. Under 2.5 goals, Arsenal 6+ shots on target and Everton 3+ shots on target can be backed at 9/110.00.

Under 2.5 goals, Arsenal 6+ shots on target and Everton 3+ shots on target @ 9/110.00

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Tom's P/L for the 2023/24 season

Staked: 10.00pts

Returned: 0.00pts

P/L: -10.00pts

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