Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest: Back Eberechi Eze to score or assist at 6/5

• Market is positive on Palace

• Forest's defensive process is now one of the worst in PL

• Eze has seven goal involvements in last eight starts

• Betfair Safe Sub has launched. Get full details here

• Check out Mike Norman's two 11/43.75 Build Ups tips for tonight's game

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
Monday 5 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

A Wembley hangover for Palace?

Trying to factor in how much of a hangover Crystal Palace will be carrying plays a huge part in trying to decipher where the value lies in this game.

Palace reached FA Cup Final for the time last weekend and play Man City in final a week on Saturday. It's a big deal. And Oliver Glasner admitted his players were given four days off to celebrate the achievement before heading back to work on Thursday to prepare for Forest. If this was 30 years ago, I'd be more inclined to factor in the "week on the beers" theory but we live in different times now.

These players are machines and rarely allow themselves a treat day let alone going on a four-day bender across the pubs of south London, revelling in their hero statuses.

The market agrees. It expects Crystal Palace to win this encounter, with 2.3411/8 on offer from the Betfair Exchange on a home win, despite there being little for Glasner's team to play for in the Premier League.

It's also relevant that Palace have taken 29 points from the last 17 Premier League games (W8 D5 L4) - only four teams have a higher points haul in that period. So, even though Forest are fighting for Champions League qualification, their recent form of losing three of their last four matches is being taken as a serious sign of Forest being miles away from their form of earlier in the season. It's 3.412/5 for the away win.

Forest's defensive process is crumbling

Forest's season has been built around the magnificent trio of Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo and Matz Sels.

But just like when forwards lose their form in front of goal that in turn affects the output of a team, the same can happen in defence and that's occurring with Forest. Mistakes are now being made at key moments in matches - as on show during the 2-0 defeat to Brentford where two relatively simple balls over the top were not dealt with which cost Forest the game. Those types of errors have been creeping in recent weeks and Forest's defensive numbers are now that of a mid-table team.

Across their last 12 Premier League matches their expected goals against process is working at 1.77 per 90 - only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton have a worse defensive process. They are being punished for such lacklustre numbers, especially away from home where they've conceded two or more goals in seven of their last nine road trips.

This is seriously worrying for Forest and their hopes of Champions League. The strong spine has been replaced by a soft underbelly of late and if Nuno Espirito Santo doesn't find a fix, they will be heading into next season with a whimper even if European qualification of some sort is secured.

I'm an Eze lover

The prices surrounding Palace's front three really make appeal, especially the 6/52.20 dangled about the chances of Eberechi Eze registering a goal or an assist. Here we have a player back to his absolute flowing best after a season which has stopped and started due to various injury issues.

He has now started the last 12 games across all competitions for Palace and has been coming up clutch at some big moments. There was the goal and assist in the excellent 3-0 FA Cup quarter-final win over Fulham before following that up with two assists against Brighton.

Eze has found the net in three of his last five starts too, scoring at Manchester City, Arsenal and in an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley - a goal many will remember for a long time against Aston Villa. In total, he has produced seven goal involvements in his last eight appearances. He can go in again.

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