Chelsea v Newcastle: Magpies can shock inconsistent Blues in high-scoring game

• Two inconsistent sides can play out a blinder

• Away win appeals at the better price

• Goals and Shots included in 5.24/1 Bet Builder

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Chelsea v Newcastle
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

A clash of two inconsistent sides

Back in August, you'd probably have gotten decent odds about Chelsea finishing in the bottom half of the table this season - in fact they were 8/52.60 to finish outside of the top six, I know because I tipped them (among some poor tips I must add) - but with just 12 games remaining, that's exactly what they look like doing.

To be honest, I find the Blues almost impossible to predict. They were absolutely outstanding in beating Aston Villa away from home in the FA Cup, so much so that I made them an extremely confident pick to beat Crystal Palace in the league a few days later.

They got the job done that night, but their first half performance will go down as one of the worst 45 minutes of football ever played by a Chelsea team. Maurico Pochettino's men didn't have a single shot - on or off target - until the 45th minute!

Since then they've had an excellent 1-1 draw at Manchester City followed by some pretty poor performances in losing the EFL Cup final, needing a last-minute goal to beat Championship side Leeds in the FA Cup, and drawing 2-2 at out-of-form Brentford.

Chelsea host Newcastle on Monday night, and that's where it gets complicated in terms of previewing the game because the Magpies are quite similar to how I've described the Blues.

True, they're not underperforming in quite the same way Chelsea are, but they're almost just as difficult to predict.

As an example, they lost at home to relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest one game, and then just a few weeks later won easily at Champions League-chasing Aston Villa. From their last 12 games (all competitions) they've won five, drawn two and lost five. Says it all really!

Perhaps I'm being a little unfair on the Magpies as Eddie Howe's men do go into Monday night's game having lost only one of their last eight in all competitions, and that was at Arsenal who are blowing everyone away at present.

What we do get with Newcastle however is entertainment. Every single one of their last nine league games has witnessed at least three goals, and quite remarkably they went eight Premier League games on the spin where at least four goals were scored with both teams getting on the scoresheet. That sequence was only broken when they beat Wolves 3-0 last weekend.

Match Odds

For two teams that are so difficult to predict I did seriously consider dodging the Match Odds market, but then I had a slight re-think.

Newcastle are 3.814/5 on the Betfair Exchange to win the game, and given everything I've already said about the unpredictability of both teams, they're just as likely to win as Chelsea who are 1.9620/21.

I have no doubt that if both teams performed to their absolute best then Pochettino's men, with home advantage, would likely run out comfortable winners, but we just don't see Chelsea at their best, or anywhere near their best, on anything that even resembles a regular basis.

At least Newcastle go into this game on the back of a very impressive win over Wolves last weekend, and they are unbeaten in their last three league games against Chelsea including a 4-1 win over them as recently as November.

For the above reasons, I'll back an away win and I will put it up as a bet.

Header

As mentioned already, and as you can see form the below graphic, games involving Newcastle tend to be high scoring. To have eight Premier League games on the spin go over the 3.5 goals mark is almost unheard of.

I fancy we'll see a very open game on Monday night and I'm happy to include the Over 3.5 Goals opption in my Bet Builder.

There are some obvious candidates to include when it comes to goals and assists, especially each team's star man - Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon - who are enjoying fantastic campaigns. But it's a player to have shots that I'm interested in.

Newcastle defender Fabian Schar has registered 29 shots this term, which is very impressive for a centre-back, and you can be sure that he'll be having a pop or two - hopefully the latter - at Stamford Bridge when he receives the ball inside the Chelsea half.

Schar loves to bring that ball forward, and if he gets to anywhere around the 25-30 yards from goal range he's very likely to have a shot at goal.

I'm going to include him in a Bet Builder to have two or more shots - on or off target - during the game, and along with the goals wager, the bet pays out at just over 4/15.00.

Now read more Premier League tips and previews here.