Chelsea entertain Brentford in a West London derby from Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing both sides to oblige...
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Chelsea have scored eight goals in three EPL outings
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Brentford rank 5th for npxG this season
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BTTS has banked in 60% of all EPL encounters
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Having comfortably despatched both Fulham and Burnley, a rejuvenated Chelsea appeared to be heading for a third successive Premier League victory after taking a 2-0 advantage against Arsenal last weekend. The Blues had dominated for long periods with goals from Cole Palmer and Mykhailo Mudryk putting them in complete control at Stamford Bridge.
That was until goalkeeper Robert Sanchez gifted the Gunners a lifeline they grabbed gratefully and an equaliser soon followed as Chelsea squandered their two-goal lead in unedifying circumstances.
The Blues' frustration was clear at the final whistle yet Mauricio Pochettino will be eager to take the positives out of another improved performance.
Chelsea 1.664/6 were positive and demonstrated the intensity and attacking intent that is Pochettino's trademark. Mudryk has shown signs of increasing confidence while Moises Caicedo patrolled midfield with authority, Conor Gallagher excelled again as Chelsea were comfortably the better side until Sanchez's poor clearance 13 minutes from time.
Brentford 5.805/1 suffered a gut-wrenching stoppage-time defeat at Manchester United before the international break, extending the Bees' winless streak to six in the Premier League. But Thomas Frank's team bounced back in eye-catching fashion last Saturday as they dismissed a struggling Burnley side 3-0 at the Community Stadium.
Yoana Wissa had broken the deadlock in the first half before spectacular goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Saman Ghoddos bagged the points in a convincing display. Frank even felt his side should have won by an even more handsome margin after opposition goalkeeper James Trafford produced a string of fine saves to keep Clarets in the game before half-time.
Ben Mee's return to the bench provided more positivity for the Bees, who will also welcome Aaron Hickey back from suspension for Saturday's short trip to Stamford Bridge.
Despite Chelsea's obvious improvements, I'm not comfortable enough to support the Blues at short odds-on quotes. Instead, the option to back Both Teams To Score stands out at 1.8810/11.
Chelsea have plundered eight Premier League goals across their last three fixtures and Mauricio Pochettino's men are averaging 1.57 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-game in 2023/24. Considering Brentford have managed to keep their sheets clean only twice this term, the home side will be expecting to make the net bulge.
Nevertheless, the Blues have only recorded a solitary Stamford Bridge shutout in nine, and that arrived against newly-promoted Luton. Brentford will be encouraged by that sorry defensive record, as well as their own attacking exploits; exclude penalties and the Bees have generated a 1.76 xG per-game - the fifth-highest figure in the EPL thus far.
Thomas Frank's team have scored in all bar two league tussles with six of those nine showdowns producing Both Teams To Score profit. A repeat appeals here with 60% of all Premier League games paying-out in this market so far this season.
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