English Premier League Tips

Chelsea v Arsenal: Gunners ready to shoot down Blues

  • Kevin Hatchard
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3 min read
Chelsea manager Graham Potter
Chelsea boss Graham Potter endured a tough return to his old club Brighton last weekend

Premier League title challengers Arsenal make the short trip to face Chelsea on Sunday lunchtime, and Kevin Hatchard believes they can pick up a positive result...

  • Arsenal have won on last two visits to Stamford Bridge
  • Gunners have beaten Liverpool and Tottenham this term
  • Chelsea were ragged in heavy Brighton loss

Blues battered by Brighton, so what's next?

Last weekend's trip to the Amex was painful for Chelsea and excruciating for their new manager Graham Potter. The usually genial coach was forced to defend his defection from Brighton, after his old side had shredded his new one 4-1.

Potter left a fine legacy on the south coast, so much so that his well-drilled team picked plenty of holes in a Chelsea side that still hasn't quite settled down since the departure of Thomas Tuchel.

According to the Infogol Expected Goals data, Chelsea should be 12th in the Premier League, and Understat.com's Expected Points table has them in exactly the same place.

In reality, Chelsea are sixth, three points off the top four heading into the weekend fixtures. Although they have done well in the Champions League under Potter (Chelsea grabbed four wins and a draw and finished top), they have hit a sticky spell in the Premier League, collecting just two points from the last three games.

Injuries are playing their part. N'Golo Kanté, Reece James, Wesley Fofana and Ben Chilwell are all out, while there are doubts over Kalidou Koulibaly, Denis Zakaria, Mateo Kovacic, and the in-form Kepa.

Arsenal keen to make a statement

Having dropped points with an uneven display in their 1-1 draw at Southampton, Arsenal came roaring back last weekend, as they dismantled hapless Nottingham Forest in a brutal 5-0 win. It was the most ruthless and efficient destruction of Forest since the work of outgoing Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.

The Gunners go into this set of fixtures top of the Premier League table, and while there are few who truly believe they can stay with Manchester City for the entire season, it is perhaps more relevant that they already have an eight-point cushion in the race for Champions League slots.

The Gunners haven't played in European football's premier competition since 2017, and considering Arsenal have started spending serious money in the transfer market, a golden ticket to the VIP club is of the utmost importance.

Arsenal booked their place in the last 16 of the Europa League on Thursday, beating Zurich 1-0, and they have used that competition to rest and rotate. Players like Fabio Vieira, Matt Turner (before his injury), Kieran Tierney (who scored the winner on Thursday), Eddie Nketiah and Reiss Nelson have been given important game time.

Mikel Arteta's side have picked up some big wins at home this term, beating Tottenham and Liverpool, but they are still looking for that consistency on the road. They lost 3-1 at Manchester United, they were somewhat fortunate to beat Leeds United at Elland Road, and they lost 2-0 recently at PSV Eindhoven.

Oleksandr Zinchenko is back in training after a troublesome injury, but it's not yet clear whether the Ukraine international is fit enough to play, and Takehiro Tomiyasu picked up a knock in midweek, so Kieran Tierney may keep his place at left-back. Granit Xhaka, Bukayo Saka, Thomas Partey, William Saliba and Martin Odegaard should all return.

Market can't split London rivals

Chelsea are the slight favourites here at 2.747/4, with Arsenal 2.89/5. That gives us the opportunity to back the Gunners Draw No Bet at 2.021/1, so if the game is drawn we get our stake back.

Opta tell us that Arsenal have won three of their last four Premier League games against Chelsea, more wins than they had managed across the previous 17 top-flight meetings. The Gunners have won their last two league games at Stamford Bridge.

Defences under pressure

Both Teams To Score is trading at 1.824/5, and I think that's about right. If you look at Graham Potter's time at Chelsea, six of his 11 matches have seen both teams score, including the last four.

If you examine Arsenal's games against the big hitters this term, they won 3-1 against Spurs, 3-2 against Liverpool and lost 3-1 at Manchester United. Seven of their 12 PL games this term have seen a BTTS bet land.

You could use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to combine Arsenal/Draw Double Chance, BTTS and Bukayo Saka to have a shot on target at 3.412/5. England international Saka has already had nine shots on target this term in the top flight, and he might end up facing Raheem Sterling, who has been playing in an unfamiliar wing-back position.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal attack, it's worth considering backing Gabriel Martinelli to score or assist at 2.757/4. The Brazilian has delivered five goals and two assists in 12 Premier League appearances this term.


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