Burnley v Wolves: Clarets can tame Wolves

Clarets clinging to hope

After Everton had snatched a late leveller against Leicester City, Burnley knew they had to win their game against Southampton to truly apply pressure in the race for safety. Having survived an early scare when Saints midfielder Oriol Romeu planted a header wide of the target, Burnley had a great spell that saw them build a 2-0 lead. According to Infogol, the Clarets won the Expected Goals battle by a figure of 2.77 to 1.45, racking up their best xGF number of the season.

The sacking of beloved manager Sean Dyche was highly controversial, and we may never truly find out all of the details of that bold decision. Dyche spent a decade at the helm, establishing an unfashionable and financially restricted club as Premier League regulars. In his absence, there has been a lift - Burnley managed a 1-1 draw at West Ham (they scored with their only shot on target, and missed a penalty at 1-0 up) before their critical win over Saints.

It's too simplistic to say that interim boss Mike Jackson has released the shackles, but his team did play on the front foot on Thursday, and racked up plenty of chances. That balance between attack and defence has been elusive for the team all season - only Norwich have scored fewer goals, but Burnley have a decent defensive record, with 45 goals against one of the lowest tallies in the bottom half.

Jackson could name an unchanged starting XI, with high-profile attacking additions Maxwel Cornet and Wout Weghorst both expected to be fit. Ben Mee, Ashley Westwood, Erik Pieters and Johann Berg Gudmundsson are all still out.

Wolves letting chance slip away

Just when it seemed as though Wolves might be able to net a surprise ticket to Europe for next season, their form has taken a tumble. Defeats to Leeds and Newcastle, with the latter performance one of their worst of the season, has possibly left the West Midlands club with too much to do. They have games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool to come, and they are three points off the top seven. Seventh spot will be worth a place in the Conference League, after Liverpool and Chelsea both reached the FA Cup final.

Considering this is their first season since the departure of popular and successful coach Nuno, Wolves have generally done well. Bruno Lage's first campaign as a Premier League boss has seen the team progress in many ways, and a low goal tally of 33 isn't necessarily indicative of how the former Benfica coach wants to play. However, there is a possible concern going forward about the team's defensive stability. Wolves have only conceded 28 goals, which is one of the best records in the league, but Infogol's data shows an Expected Goals Against figure of 47.6. Now, even if you doubt the efficacy of xG data, that's a big differential, and much of it has been down to the superb performances of goalkeeper Jose Sa.

Raul Jimenez is back after suspension and will spearhead the attack. Ruben Neves is definitely out injured, and there is a doubt over his Portuguese compatriot Daniel Podence.

Burnley can avoid defeat

The Match Odds market is split fairly evenly here, and we can take advantage of that by using the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. If we back Burnley/Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 1.9420/21, we get a winner if it ends 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 or 2-0.

Twelve of Burnley's last 15 PL games have featured fewer than three goals, as have 20 of Wolves' 32 top-flight matches under Lage. Burnley have the greater motivation, and they have momentum after taking four points from their last two games. Wolves have lost three of their last four away matches.

Cornet and Jimenez to hit the target

Maxwel Cornet has been a smart addition by Burnley, and the former Lyon speedster is averaging 1.04 shots on target per 90 in the top flight this term. He has scored seven PL goals this term.

Conversely, Wolves' Trincao has only scored once in the league this term, but it doesn't stop him trying. He averages 1.95 shots per 90, and 0.84 on target, and the latter figure is significantly higher than Jimenez this season.

Keep an eye on the team news, and if both players start, back them to each have a shot on target at 2.77/4 on the Bet Builder.