Burnley v Liverpool: Reds won't have it easy at Turf Moor

Jurgen Klopp
A win for Jurgen Klopp's side would put them within touching distance of a top-four finish.

Liverpool head to Burnley in the Premier League on Wednesday looking to keep their top-four bid on track but Andy Schooler says they won't have it all their own way.

"This has landed in Liverpool’s last two games, plus the reverse fixture in which the Reds managed 27 attempts on goal."

Back 33 or more match shots @ 14/1

Burnley v Liverpool
Wednesday 19 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Alisson goal masked familiar problem

Alisson's remarkable last-gasp winner at West Brom on Sunday has put Liverpool firmly on course for a place in the Champions League next season.

While it's not guaranteed, two wins in their final two games look highly likely to be enough - the picture should be clearer after Tuesday's Chelsea v Leicester clash.

With this game and Crystal Palace at Anfield to come, the Reds should do it and escape from a season of great difficulty with their place at Europe's top table still set.

I say should.

Their goalkeeper's heroics clearly shifted the focus but had his 95th-minute header sailed wide, it would have been a familiar tale - plenty of huff and puff without the goals (and result) to show for it.

That's been a major problem all season against the lower-ranked sides with Sunday's victory being just Liverpool's third against the teams in the bottom six. Five have been drawn and three lost.

They've also failed to score more than twice in any of those 11 matches, with Newcastle, Brighton, Fulham and Burnley, in the reverse fixture, all managing to prevent them from scoring.

Luck was also on their side on Sunday with referee Mike Dean coming up with some questionable decisions - the one which saw Liverpool awarded a free kick immediately prior to their equaliser was a frankly embarrassing mistake.

Time to lay Liverpool?

So, even though Liverpool have now taken 20 points from the last 24 on offer, should they really be 1.282/7 to win this game?

Despite their need for a result, the answer has to be no.

West Brom also had nothing to play for and Burnley are an upgrade on the Baggies.

Some will disagree, no doubt.

Burnley, 12.011/1 for the victory, have now lost five of their last seven and haven't won at Turf Moor since January - a run of nine games which is a club record. Saturday saw them thrashed 4-0 at home by Leeds.

That said, the Clarets haven't been as bad as those stats suggest in recent weeks.

They comfortably beat both Wolves and Fulham and were 2-0 up at Southampton before a strange collapse. They've also blown leads against Newcastle and West Ham.

Chris Wood scores 1280.jpg

Striker Chris Wood (pictured) has been in good form and looks capable of causing Liverpool's makeshift central defence problems.

Go low on goals

Having been cut open too easily by Leeds, I'd expect Sean Dyche to have his side sitting deeper here in a bid to repeat their dogged effort at Anfield in January which earned them a 1-0 win.

Those are the tactics which have often frustrated Liverpool this season.

With this in mind, under 2.5 goals appeals at 3.39/4.

That's occurred in 33% of Burnley's home games this season, while it's also landed in eight of Liverpool's last 12. Looking at those games against the bottom six, nine of 11 have seen less than three goals scored.

Backing Burnley in the double-chance market at 4.57/2 - or laying Liverpool, it's the same thing - is the other tempting option given the odds.

However, I'll go with the under goals play given history this season shows that if Liverpool are going to win, they are likely to do so in low-scoring fashion.

Shots angles appeal

I also like the shots markets for this clash given how desperate Liverpool are for a result.

If Burnley are able to prevent the Reds grabbing an early lead - or even get ahead themselves - shots should rain down from the visitors.

They managed 26 at West Brom on Sunday (there were 36 in total in the match), 21 against Newcastle (28 in match) and 17 at both Manchester United and Leeds (34, 29 totals).

Only West Brom and Newcastle have conceded more shots per game than Burnley, who have actually been a bit more expansive of late.

Admittedly I'm not sure that will be the case here but some of the total shots prices still look big.

I'll play 33+ match shots at 14/1.

This has landed in Liverpool's last two games, plus the reverse fixture in which the Reds managed 27 attempts on goal.

The other big shots price involves Trent Alexander-Arnold.

The Liverpool right-back is back in top form and has been surging into shooting positions in recent weeks.

He's managed four shots in each of his last two games and at least three in four of his last six. Against Burnley at Anfield, he hit five.

Ahead of the rematch, 3+ is on offer at 11/4 and 4+ shots at 15/2.

Hoping Burnley's defence can stand firm long enough, I'll take the latter price about a player who will also be on free kicks around the box.

Opta fact

Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since the 1929-30 season, after they ended the Reds' 68-game unbeaten home run earlier this season.

Click here for Alex Keble's tactical preview of matchday 37

Andy Schooler's P/L 2020/21

Staked: 81pts
Returned: 54.58pts
P/L: -26.42pts

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