Brighton v Newcastle: Back a South Coast stalemate & 9/1 Bet Builder

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This game would be tough enough to call without both sides throwing us a curve ball last week by suffering damaging home defeats, so now we have to try and guess who can bounce back strongest.

Both sides were left ruing missed chances with Brighton having 26 efforts on goal in their 3-1 defeat to West Ham and and Newcastle 23 in their 2-1 loss to ten-man Liverpool.

For the Seagulls the result brought them back down to earth after a fine start while for the Magpies it was a reminder of where they want to get to after losing successive games to Man City and Liverpool.

And with the international break and Champions League to follow the last thing Eddie Howe wants to do is spoil the atmosphere on Tyneside by losing three in a row.

The draw might make sense

Even the VAR offside lines would struggle to split these two in the betting with Brighton 7/52.40 and Newcastle 11/82.38 and I agree that this one is a genuine coin toss.

Being at the Amex should give Roberto De Zerbi's side the edge but Newcastle's tactics hold the key here, as for me I don't see Howe going for the throat given recent results.

The Magpies boss will instead try and do a West Ham and sit back, soak up pressure and hit Brighton on the break - as we know the hosts won't change their style.

If they hadn't both lost their last game I'd expect plenty of goals but in the outrights I'm happier playing the draw at 29/103.90 given that both sides will be desperate not to lose.

Four of the last five meetings on the south coast have been stalemates, with all four going under 2.5 goals and two 0-0s. Under 2.5 goals is 13/82.63 as there's plenty of attacking firewpower on show, but a safety-first approach could just nullify that.

Back fouls for the wide men

An angle I like in this game is for some of the heat of the action to come out wide, where we have a couple of clashes that could see veterans James Milner and Kieran Trippier in a spot of bother.

Trippier, who has given a foul away in every game, will have the tricky Karou Mitoma on his case, while Milner could have even more problems dealing with Anthony Gordon.

Being a former Everton player v former Liverpool player will add some spice, and Gordon showed all sides of his game last week with his lightning pace, his theatrical falls trying to win free-kicks and his aggression.

Who knows how he got away with that shove on Trent Alexander-Arnold, but that shows exactly the energy he'll bring here and have no doubt he'll leave on on Milner if he gets the chance. And vice-versa!

Milner is odds on, but only just, at 10/111.91 for 2+ fouls while Trippier is 11/82.38 and Gordon a generous 7/52.40 after six fouls this season (which really should be seven at least) so we'll put those three in a tidy Bet Builder treble.

Pascal and Pervis the pass masters

Brighton should dominate the ball as they usually do - Man City made 679 passes against Newcastle and the Seagulls are the closest thing in the league to the champions.

Pascal Gross has been at the heart of the team so far this season and receives the ball in midfield as much as he can - so mcuh so he's had 79, 66 and 122 pass attempts in his three league games so far.

Gross is 11/102.11 for 70+ pass attempts on Saturday night and I think Newcastle will allow him at least that number as they sit back deeper than usual.

Left-back or wing-back Pervis Estupinan also gets plenty of the ball and is third on their Brighton team in terms of pass attempts.

He's well ahead of a number of players shorter than his quote of 12/53.40 for 70+ pass attempts which he's eclipsed in two of three games, registering 58 in the other away at Wolves.

Try huge 27/1 draw treble for Free Acca Offer

With Betfair's Free Acca Offer why not roll up a draw in Brighton v Newcastle with two other stalemates on Sunday for a huge 27/128.00 acca treble.

Wolves visit Crystal Palace on Sunday with neither side really convincing - Palace look reasonably solid if unspectacular while Wolves probably should've had more than their 1-0 win at Everton to show for their season so far.

That game has draw written all over it, and I actually think Arsenal v Man Utd could also end with honours even at the Emirates in the big game, priced at 23/103.30.

Erik ten Hag can't afford to continue losing big away games and Arsenal had two narrow wins followed by a draw against 10-man Fulham at home last time out.