- Brighton have won last three
- Villa scored 5 conceded 5 in last 2
- Goals on the agenda at the Amex
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Seagulls flying high
It's natural in any break-up to wonder how your ex is doing, and to perhaps compare their situation with yours. While Graham Potter, the man who jilted Brighton for Chelsea, is getting to grips with the Herculean labours that face him at Stamford Bridge, Seagulls fans are learning to love again with Potter's Italian successor Roberto De Zerbi.
These are early days, of course, but De Zerbi has found that a group of technically gifted and tactically aware players are perfect for the way he wants to play. De Zerbi wants his charges to take risks, to invite numbers into his half before playing through the maelstrom.
The early signs are good - Brighton have claimed eight points from the last seven matches, but it's worth noting that list of fixtures included games at Liverpool and Manchester City, as well as home games against Chelsea and Tottenham.
Brighton have won their last three games, starting with a delicious 4-1 demolition of Chelsea and ending with a midweek win at Arsenal in the League Cup. The Gunners heavily rotated their squad, but ending Arsenal's long winning run at the Emirates was no mean feat.
If we look at understat.com's Expected Points table, we see that Brighton are third, and that tallies with what the Infogol Expected Goals data is saying. It won't exactly dismay Brighton fans to know that Chelsea's xG data suggests they should be 13th in the standings.
Mixed start for Villa's new boss
It's unusual to start a managerial spell with two games against the same opponent, but that's exactly what new Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has done.
The first clash with Manchester United underlined the squad's potential (not least young gun Jacob Ramsey, who was all too often shackled under previous manager Steven Gerrard), as Villa swept aside the Red Devils 3-1.
The League Cup game at Old Trafford was also encouraging in many ways, as Villa twice led, but a late collapse sparked a 4-2 defeat.
That exit from the League Cup is a blow for Emery, who is openly targeting a trophy. Villa fans will find that the Spaniard is happy to sacrifice points in the league if it means making progress in cup competitions. That's why he's been involved in eight European finals, and has won the Europa League four times.
Indeed, while many Premier League clubs this week played reserve sides in the League Cup, Emery selected a side that was pretty close to his best available.
One of Emery's most pressing tasks is to organise a defence and midfield that is far too easy to play through. Villa couldn't deal with Manchester United youngster Alejandro Garnacho on Thursday, and they have managed just three clean sheets in their last 16 competitive games.
Emery will be without Brazilian playmaker Philippe Coutinho until after the World Cup because of injury. Summer signing Boubacar Kamara has made an encouraging return from injury in the last two games and may start here. The French central midfielder is exactly the kind of intense performer that Emery likes to build his teams around.
Brighton a little short at odds-on
Even though he's only been in charge for two games, I'm reluctant to oppose Emery at this stage, such is his ability to grind out results.
His amazing spell with Villarreal - they won the Europa League two seasons ago, and reached the semis of the Champions League in the following campaign - is proof that he can organise a side. They played incredibly well at times against United in league and cup.
I can't get excited about backing Brighton at 1.8910/11 in the Match Odds market, even though the Seagulls are playing some lovely stuff. Brighton have only won three of their last six home games, and Opta tell us that the south coast side have won just one of their six Premier League clashes with Villa, so I'll look at other markets.
Goals on the cards
Given Villa's defensive issues and Brighton's high-risk approach, I fancy Both Teams To Score here at 1.865/6. That has landed in seven of Brighton's last 10 competitive matches, and eight of Villa's last 15.
If you want to put together a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook, you could back Over 1.5 Goals, Danny Welbeck to have a shot on target and Leandro Trossard to score or assist at 3.13.
Although he is yet to score in the top flight this term, Welbeck has had 10 shots on target this term, while Trossard has seven goals and two assists in the PL this season.
Revitalised Ramsey worth considering
England U21 international Jacob Ramsey was outstanding against Aston Villa last weekend, getting a goal and an assist, and if he's being let off the leash by Emery, we can take advantage.
The Villa youth product is a massive 2/1 on the Sportsbook just to have a shot on target, and I think that's too good a price to ignore.
Watch this week's Football...Only Bettor
Recommended bets
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.865/6
Back Jacob Ramsey to have a shot on target @ 3.02/1