Brentford v Chelsea: Derby clash to bring goals

• Chelsea in form but giving up chances
• Brentford on a high after Brighton win
• Ivan Toney has eight PL goals in ten games

Toney lighting the way

One goal came from a delicate flick, the other from a nonchalant penalty, and both sent the Brentford faithful wild. Ivan Toney bagged a brace as Brentford beat Brighton 2-0 on Friday night to cement a solid start to the campaign.

The Bees are in the top half of the table, and going into the midweek fixtures they are a healthy five points clear of the relegation zone.

Toney is applying the right kind of pressure on England boss Gareth Southgate ahead of the World Cup. He has scored eight PL goals in ten games, and looks razor sharp. In a tournament, it never hurts to be able to bring on a deadly finisher, and indeed a player with an almost perfect penalty record.

Brentford can be a hit-and-miss team (they have won three, lost three and drawn four of their ten league games), but manager Thomas Frank says Friday's win over Brighton had been coming. The hosts played with intensity and physicality, but they still needed goalkeeper David Raya to put on a virtuoso display to keep the Seagulls at bay.

Frank isn't expected to make too many changes to his starting XI. Christian Norgaard and Aaron Hickey are struggling with injury, and are both likely to miss out.

Potter has made lightning start

If anyone thought Graham Potter would take time to adjust to the bright lights of West London and the instant pressure of the hot-seat at Stamford Bridge, they have been swiftly disabused of that notion. The Blues are unbeaten under their new boss, and they have won five games in a row across the league and the Champions League.

Chelsea are in the top four of the Premier League, and top of their section in the Champions League.

However, we have been here before. Thomas Tuchel made an outstanding start to life with Chelsea, so much so that he won the Champions League in his first campaign, and yet he was ruthlessly replaced when it became apparent he didn't share the same sporting philosophy as the club's de facto boss Todd Boehly.

The test of Potter's bond with the owners won't be when things are going swimmingly, it will be when times get rough.

There have been clear winners in Potter's tenure so far. Midfielder Mason Mount has been a key player, and scored a brace in the weekend win at Aston Villa. It always seems that the England international doesn't get enough credit, but he is an outstanding footballer.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was ironically tempted to Stamford Bridge to renew acquaintances with Tuchel, but he has played regularly under Potter and has already scored three goals.

The biggest change has been the restoration of Kepa in goal, with Edouard Mendy relegated to understudy, at least for now.

N'Golo Kante and Wesley Fofana are both out, and Chelsea have been dealt a hefty blow with news that Reece James is out with a knee problem, and could miss the World Cup. Hakim Ziyech could return after injury, while Jorginho is pushing for a recall in midfield.

Chelsea a touch too short to sting Bees

Chelsea are in terrific form, but they were fortunate to win at Crystal Palace in Potter's first away game and they were gifted two goals at Villa Park, so it's tough to judge exactly where they are at. I'm certainly not getting excited about backing the Blues to win at 1.784/5, especially when you bear in mind that Brentford smashed them 4-1 in the clubs' last meeting.

I am far more enthusiastic about backing both teams to score at 1.865/6. Infogol tell us that Chelsea had an Expected Goals Against figure of 2.65 at Villa Park, and they gave up chances in wins over Wolves and Crystal Palace.

Brentford have generated at least 1.18 xG in five of their last six Premier League games, and if you look at their first ten top-flight matches this term, they have featured 35 goals at an average of 3.5 per match.

You could also use the Bet Builder to combine a BTTS bet with Over 2.5 Goals at 2.03103/100.

Backing Ivan won't be terrible

Toney has scored six goals across his last five games, and yet his price in the To Score market on the Sportsbook is a hefty 3.259/4. Toney takes penalties, and is looking really dangerous in the box, and I suspect he'll get chances in the febrile atmosphere of a West London derby.

On the Chelsea side of things, the in-form Aubameyang is priced at 2.111/10.